Effect of scenario planning on field experts' judgment of long-range investment decisions
We present the results of three field experiments demonstrating the effect of scenario planning on field experts' judgment of several long-range investment decisions. Our results show, contrary to past findings, that the use of multiple scenarios does not cause an aggregate increase or decrease...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | en_US |
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John Wiley & Sons, Inc
2015
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| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/96020 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3936-5440 |
| _version_ | 1811085527279992832 |
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| author | Phadnis, Shardul Caplice, Chris Sheffi, Yossi Singh, Mahender |
| author2 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Center for Transportation & Logistics |
| author_facet | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Center for Transportation & Logistics Phadnis, Shardul Caplice, Chris Sheffi, Yossi Singh, Mahender |
| author_sort | Phadnis, Shardul |
| collection | MIT |
| description | We present the results of three field experiments demonstrating the effect of scenario planning on field experts' judgment of several long-range investment decisions. Our results show, contrary to past findings, that the use of multiple scenarios does not cause an aggregate increase or decrease in experts' confidence in their judgment. Rather, expert judgment changes in accordance with how an investment fares in a given scenario: it becomes more favorable if the investment is found to be useful for a particular scenario used by the expert, and vice versa. This scenario-induced change is moderated by the expert's confidence in his/her judgment before using the scenario. Finally, our results show that field experts prefer more flexible options to make specific long-range investments after using multiple scenarios. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T13:11:00Z |
| format | Article |
| id | mit-1721.1/96020 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | en_US |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T13:11:00Z |
| publishDate | 2015 |
| publisher | John Wiley & Sons, Inc |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/960202022-10-01T13:33:46Z Effect of scenario planning on field experts' judgment of long-range investment decisions Phadnis, Shardul Caplice, Chris Sheffi, Yossi Singh, Mahender Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Center for Transportation & Logistics Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Engineering Systems Division Sheffi, Yossi Phadnis, Shardul Caplice, Chris Sheffi, Yossi Singh, Mahender We present the results of three field experiments demonstrating the effect of scenario planning on field experts' judgment of several long-range investment decisions. Our results show, contrary to past findings, that the use of multiple scenarios does not cause an aggregate increase or decrease in experts' confidence in their judgment. Rather, expert judgment changes in accordance with how an investment fares in a given scenario: it becomes more favorable if the investment is found to be useful for a particular scenario used by the expert, and vice versa. This scenario-induced change is moderated by the expert's confidence in his/her judgment before using the scenario. Finally, our results show that field experts prefer more flexible options to make specific long-range investments after using multiple scenarios. National Research Council (U.S.). Transportation Research Board (National Cooperative Highway Research Program grant, project 20-83(1)) 2015-03-13T19:35:23Z 2015-03-13T19:35:23Z 2014-06 2013-05 Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle 01432095 1097-0266 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/96020 Phadnis, Shardul, Chris Caplice, Yossi Sheffi, and Mahender Singh. “Effect of Scenario Planning on Field Experts’ Judgment of Long-Range Investment Decisions.” Strategic Management Journal (Early View, June 13, 2014): pp.1-11. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3936-5440 en_US http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/smj.2293 Strategic Management Journal Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ application/pdf John Wiley & Sons, Inc Prof. Sheffi via Angie Locknar |
| spellingShingle | Phadnis, Shardul Caplice, Chris Sheffi, Yossi Singh, Mahender Effect of scenario planning on field experts' judgment of long-range investment decisions |
| title | Effect of scenario planning on field experts' judgment of long-range investment decisions |
| title_full | Effect of scenario planning on field experts' judgment of long-range investment decisions |
| title_fullStr | Effect of scenario planning on field experts' judgment of long-range investment decisions |
| title_full_unstemmed | Effect of scenario planning on field experts' judgment of long-range investment decisions |
| title_short | Effect of scenario planning on field experts' judgment of long-range investment decisions |
| title_sort | effect of scenario planning on field experts judgment of long range investment decisions |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/96020 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3936-5440 |
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