How Much is Enough? The "Ballot Order Effect" and the use of Social Science Research in Election Law Disputes
Previous empirical research and other related research from survey methodology holds that candidates listed first on an election ballot may gain some measure of advantage from this ballot placement. Using data from the 1998 general election in California, we test whether a candidate’s relative positi...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Working Paper |
| Language: | en_US |
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Caltech/MIT Voting Technology Project
2015
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/96581 |
| _version_ | 1826191104330956800 |
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| author | Alvarez, R. Michael Sinclair, Betsy Hasen, Richard L. |
| author_facet | Alvarez, R. Michael Sinclair, Betsy Hasen, Richard L. |
| author_sort | Alvarez, R. Michael |
| collection | MIT |
| description | Previous empirical research and other related research from survey methodology holds that candidates listed first on an election ballot may gain some measure of advantage from this ballot placement. Using data from the 1998 general election in California, we test whether a candidate’s relative position on the ballot has any statistical effect on vote shares. We find little systematic evidence that candidate vote shares benefit from being listed first on the ballot. We show that there is not a primacy ballot order effect (defined as being listed first on the ballot) in every contest, that when the effect exists it is often very small, and that the effect is evenly distributed between primacy and latency (defined as being listed last on the ballot). We consider how courts should balance the concern over ballot order effect against other interests, such as the costs and potential confusion associated with rotation and randomization. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T08:50:15Z |
| format | Working Paper |
| id | mit-1721.1/96581 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | en_US |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T08:50:15Z |
| publishDate | 2015 |
| publisher | Caltech/MIT Voting Technology Project |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/965812019-04-10T19:20:15Z How Much is Enough? The "Ballot Order Effect" and the use of Social Science Research in Election Law Disputes Alvarez, R. Michael Sinclair, Betsy Hasen, Richard L. Election law Social science research Ballot order effect Previous empirical research and other related research from survey methodology holds that candidates listed first on an election ballot may gain some measure of advantage from this ballot placement. Using data from the 1998 general election in California, we test whether a candidate’s relative position on the ballot has any statistical effect on vote shares. We find little systematic evidence that candidate vote shares benefit from being listed first on the ballot. We show that there is not a primacy ballot order effect (defined as being listed first on the ballot) in every contest, that when the effect exists it is often very small, and that the effect is evenly distributed between primacy and latency (defined as being listed last on the ballot). We consider how courts should balance the concern over ballot order effect against other interests, such as the costs and potential confusion associated with rotation and randomization. 2015-04-14T20:22:27Z 2015-04-14T20:22:27Z 2005-11 Working Paper http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/96581 en_US VTP Working Paper Series;44 application/pdf Caltech/MIT Voting Technology Project |
| spellingShingle | Election law Social science research Ballot order effect Alvarez, R. Michael Sinclair, Betsy Hasen, Richard L. How Much is Enough? The "Ballot Order Effect" and the use of Social Science Research in Election Law Disputes |
| title | How Much is Enough? The "Ballot Order Effect" and the use of Social Science Research in Election Law Disputes |
| title_full | How Much is Enough? The "Ballot Order Effect" and the use of Social Science Research in Election Law Disputes |
| title_fullStr | How Much is Enough? The "Ballot Order Effect" and the use of Social Science Research in Election Law Disputes |
| title_full_unstemmed | How Much is Enough? The "Ballot Order Effect" and the use of Social Science Research in Election Law Disputes |
| title_short | How Much is Enough? The "Ballot Order Effect" and the use of Social Science Research in Election Law Disputes |
| title_sort | how much is enough the ballot order effect and the use of social science research in election law disputes |
| topic | Election law Social science research Ballot order effect |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/96581 |
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