Prediction of Terminal-Area Weather Penetration Based on Operational Factors
Convective weather is known to reduce airspace capacity, but the extent of the impact is not well understood. Understanding how weather affects terminal area capacity is essential for quantification of the uncertainty in weather forecasts and, in particular, the degree of accuracy of the forecast. W...
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| Other Authors: | |
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | en_US |
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Transportation Research Board of the National Academies
2015
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| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/96874 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8624-7041 |
| _version_ | 1826197774836695040 |
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| author | Lin, Yi-Hsin Balakrishnan, Hamsa |
| author2 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics |
| author_facet | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics Lin, Yi-Hsin Balakrishnan, Hamsa |
| author_sort | Lin, Yi-Hsin |
| collection | MIT |
| description | Convective weather is known to reduce airspace capacity, but the extent of the impact is not well understood. Understanding how weather affects terminal area capacity is essential for quantification of the uncertainty in weather forecasts and, in particular, the degree of accuracy of the forecast. With this foundation, the question emerges as to the feasibility and possible effectiveness of an optimal mitigation strategy. Research has focused on the overlap between convective weather cells and air routes but has not sufficiently analyzed the differences that arise from factors such as aircraft types and pilot behavior. This paper examines the interactions between convective weather and aircraft trajectories in the arrival airspace surrounding Chicago O'Hare International Airport in Illinois. Case studies based on operational data are used to determine potentially relevant operational factors, and a predictive model is built with these factors to forecast whether a flight will pass through hazardous weather. The results of the analysis suggest that these operational factors are secondary to the weather itself in determining whether a pilot will deviate from or penetrate hazardous weather. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T10:52:57Z |
| format | Article |
| id | mit-1721.1/96874 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | en_US |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T10:52:57Z |
| publishDate | 2015 |
| publisher | Transportation Research Board of the National Academies |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/968742022-09-27T15:40:53Z Prediction of Terminal-Area Weather Penetration Based on Operational Factors Prediction of Terminal-Area Weather Penetration on the Basis of Operational Factors Lin, Yi-Hsin Balakrishnan, Hamsa Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics Lin, Yi-Hsin Balakrishnan, Hamsa Convective weather is known to reduce airspace capacity, but the extent of the impact is not well understood. Understanding how weather affects terminal area capacity is essential for quantification of the uncertainty in weather forecasts and, in particular, the degree of accuracy of the forecast. With this foundation, the question emerges as to the feasibility and possible effectiveness of an optimal mitigation strategy. Research has focused on the overlap between convective weather cells and air routes but has not sufficiently analyzed the differences that arise from factors such as aircraft types and pilot behavior. This paper examines the interactions between convective weather and aircraft trajectories in the arrival airspace surrounding Chicago O'Hare International Airport in Illinois. Case studies based on operational data are used to determine potentially relevant operational factors, and a predictive model is built with these factors to forecast whether a flight will pass through hazardous weather. The results of the analysis suggest that these operational factors are secondary to the weather itself in determining whether a pilot will deviate from or penetrate hazardous weather. 2015-05-01T18:14:11Z 2015-05-01T18:14:11Z 2013-12 Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle 0361-1981 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/96874 Lin, Yi-Hsin, and Hamsa Balakrishnan. “Prediction of Terminal-Area Weather Penetration on the Basis of Operational Factors.” Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 2400, no. 1 (December 1, 2013): 45–53. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8624-7041 en_US http://dx.doi.org/10.3141/2400-06 Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ application/pdf Transportation Research Board of the National Academies MIT web domain |
| spellingShingle | Lin, Yi-Hsin Balakrishnan, Hamsa Prediction of Terminal-Area Weather Penetration Based on Operational Factors |
| title | Prediction of Terminal-Area Weather Penetration Based on Operational Factors |
| title_full | Prediction of Terminal-Area Weather Penetration Based on Operational Factors |
| title_fullStr | Prediction of Terminal-Area Weather Penetration Based on Operational Factors |
| title_full_unstemmed | Prediction of Terminal-Area Weather Penetration Based on Operational Factors |
| title_short | Prediction of Terminal-Area Weather Penetration Based on Operational Factors |
| title_sort | prediction of terminal area weather penetration based on operational factors |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/96874 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8624-7041 |
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