Influence of upper ocean stratification interannual variability on tropical cyclones
Climate modes, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), influence Tropical Cyclones (TCs) interannual activity through their effect on large-scale atmospheric environment. These climate modes also induce interannual variations of subsurface oceanic stratification, which may also influence TC...
| Principais autores: | , , , , |
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| Formato: | Artigo |
| Idioma: | en_US |
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American Geophysical Union (AGU)
2015
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| Acesso em linha: | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/97938 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4529-5490 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2066-2082 |
| _version_ | 1826195381445197824 |
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| author | Vincent, Emmanuel M. Lengaigne, Matthieu Madec, Gurvan Emanuel, Kerry Andrew Vialard, Jerome |
| author2 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences |
| author_facet | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Vincent, Emmanuel M. Lengaigne, Matthieu Madec, Gurvan Emanuel, Kerry Andrew Vialard, Jerome |
| author_sort | Vincent, Emmanuel M. |
| collection | MIT |
| description | Climate modes, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), influence Tropical Cyclones (TCs) interannual activity through their effect on large-scale atmospheric environment. These climate modes also induce interannual variations of subsurface oceanic stratification, which may also influence TCs. Changes in oceanic stratification indeed modulate the amplitude of TCs-induced cooling, and hence the negative feedback of air-sea interactions on the TC intensity. Here we use a dynamical downscaling approach that couples an axisymmetric TC model to a simple ocean model to quantify this interannual oceanic control on TC activity. We perform twin experiments with contrasted oceanic stratifications representative of interannual variability in each TC-prone region. While subsurface oceanic variations do not significantly affect the number of moderate (Category 3 or less) TCs, they do induce a 30% change of Category 5 TC-days globally, and a 70% change for TCs exceeding 85 m s[superscript −1]. TCs in the western Pacific and the southwestern Indian Ocean are most sensitive to oceanic interannual variability (with a ~10 m s[superscript −1] modulation of the intensity of strongest storms at low latitude), owing to large upper ocean variations in response to ENSO. These results imply that a representation of ocean stratification variability should benefit operational forecasts of intense TCs and the understanding of their climatic variability. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T10:11:46Z |
| format | Article |
| id | mit-1721.1/97938 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | en_US |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T10:11:46Z |
| publishDate | 2015 |
| publisher | American Geophysical Union (AGU) |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/979382022-09-26T16:19:17Z Influence of upper ocean stratification interannual variability on tropical cyclones Vincent, Emmanuel M. Lengaigne, Matthieu Madec, Gurvan Emanuel, Kerry Andrew Vialard, Jerome Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Program in Atmospheres, Oceans, and Climate Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Vincent, Emmanuel M. Emanuel, Kerry Andrew Climate modes, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), influence Tropical Cyclones (TCs) interannual activity through their effect on large-scale atmospheric environment. These climate modes also induce interannual variations of subsurface oceanic stratification, which may also influence TCs. Changes in oceanic stratification indeed modulate the amplitude of TCs-induced cooling, and hence the negative feedback of air-sea interactions on the TC intensity. Here we use a dynamical downscaling approach that couples an axisymmetric TC model to a simple ocean model to quantify this interannual oceanic control on TC activity. We perform twin experiments with contrasted oceanic stratifications representative of interannual variability in each TC-prone region. While subsurface oceanic variations do not significantly affect the number of moderate (Category 3 or less) TCs, they do induce a 30% change of Category 5 TC-days globally, and a 70% change for TCs exceeding 85 m s[superscript −1]. TCs in the western Pacific and the southwestern Indian Ocean are most sensitive to oceanic interannual variability (with a ~10 m s[superscript −1] modulation of the intensity of strongest storms at low latitude), owing to large upper ocean variations in response to ENSO. These results imply that a representation of ocean stratification variability should benefit operational forecasts of intense TCs and the understanding of their climatic variability. United States. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Climate and Global Change Postdoctoral Fellowship) 2015-07-31T17:31:21Z 2015-07-31T17:31:21Z 2014-08 2014-03 Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle 19422466 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/97938 Vincent, Emmanuel M., Kerry A. Emanuel, Matthieu Lengaigne, Jérôme Vialard, and Gurvan Madec. “Influence of Upper Ocean Stratification Interannual Variability on Tropical Cyclones.” Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems 6, no. 3 (August 5, 2014): 680–699. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4529-5490 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2066-2082 en_US http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2014ms000327 Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/ application/pdf American Geophysical Union (AGU) American Geophysical Union |
| spellingShingle | Vincent, Emmanuel M. Lengaigne, Matthieu Madec, Gurvan Emanuel, Kerry Andrew Vialard, Jerome Influence of upper ocean stratification interannual variability on tropical cyclones |
| title | Influence of upper ocean stratification interannual variability on tropical cyclones |
| title_full | Influence of upper ocean stratification interannual variability on tropical cyclones |
| title_fullStr | Influence of upper ocean stratification interannual variability on tropical cyclones |
| title_full_unstemmed | Influence of upper ocean stratification interannual variability on tropical cyclones |
| title_short | Influence of upper ocean stratification interannual variability on tropical cyclones |
| title_sort | influence of upper ocean stratification interannual variability on tropical cyclones |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/97938 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4529-5490 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2066-2082 |
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