Demonstration of Emulator-Based Bayesian Calibration of Safety Analysis Codes: Theory and Formulation
System codes for simulation of safety performance of nuclear plants may contain parameters whose values are not known very accurately. New information from tests or operating experience is incorporated into safety codes by a process known as calibration, which reduces uncertainty in the output of th...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Hindawi Publishing Corporation
2015
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| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/98088 https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6501-2836 |
| _version_ | 1811071708972449792 |
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| author | Buongiorno, Jacopo Youngblood, Robert Yurko, Joseph P |
| author2 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Nuclear Science and Engineering |
| author_facet | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Nuclear Science and Engineering Buongiorno, Jacopo Youngblood, Robert Yurko, Joseph P |
| author_sort | Buongiorno, Jacopo |
| collection | MIT |
| description | System codes for simulation of safety performance of nuclear plants may contain parameters whose values are not known very accurately. New information from tests or operating experience is incorporated into safety codes by a process known as calibration, which reduces uncertainty in the output of the code and thereby improves its support for decision-making. The work reported here implements several improvements on classic calibration techniques afforded by modern analysis techniques. The key innovation has come from development of code surrogate model (or code emulator) construction and prediction algorithms. Use of a fast emulator makes the calibration processes used here with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling feasible. This work uses Gaussian Process (GP) based emulators, which have been used previously to emulate computer codes in the nuclear field. The present work describes the formulation of an emulator that incorporates GPs into a factor analysis-type or pattern recognition-type model. This “function factorization” Gaussian Process (FFGP) model allows overcoming limitations present in standard GP emulators, thereby improving both accuracy and speed of the emulator-based calibration process. Calibration of a friction-factor example using a Method of Manufactured Solution is performed to illustrate key properties of the FFGP based process. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T08:55:14Z |
| format | Article |
| id | mit-1721.1/98088 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T08:55:14Z |
| publishDate | 2015 |
| publisher | Hindawi Publishing Corporation |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/980882023-02-26T02:54:24Z Demonstration of Emulator-Based Bayesian Calibration of Safety Analysis Codes: Theory and Formulation Buongiorno, Jacopo Youngblood, Robert Yurko, Joseph P Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Nuclear Science and Engineering Yurko, Joseph Buongiorno, Jacopo System codes for simulation of safety performance of nuclear plants may contain parameters whose values are not known very accurately. New information from tests or operating experience is incorporated into safety codes by a process known as calibration, which reduces uncertainty in the output of the code and thereby improves its support for decision-making. The work reported here implements several improvements on classic calibration techniques afforded by modern analysis techniques. The key innovation has come from development of code surrogate model (or code emulator) construction and prediction algorithms. Use of a fast emulator makes the calibration processes used here with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling feasible. This work uses Gaussian Process (GP) based emulators, which have been used previously to emulate computer codes in the nuclear field. The present work describes the formulation of an emulator that incorporates GPs into a factor analysis-type or pattern recognition-type model. This “function factorization” Gaussian Process (FFGP) model allows overcoming limitations present in standard GP emulators, thereby improving both accuracy and speed of the emulator-based calibration process. Calibration of a friction-factor example using a Method of Manufactured Solution is performed to illustrate key properties of the FFGP based process. 2015-08-18T12:55:48Z 2015-08-18T12:55:48Z 2015 2015-04 2015-08-08T07:00:21Z Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle 1687-6075 1687-6083 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/98088 Yurko, Joseph P., Jacopo Buongiorno, and Robert Youngblood. “Demonstration of Emulator-Based Bayesian Calibration of Safety Analysis Codes: Theory and Formulation.” Science and Technology of Nuclear Installations 2015 (2015): 1–17. https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6501-2836 en http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2015/839249 Science and Technology of Nuclear Installations Creative Commons Attribution http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0 Copyright © 2015 Joseph P. Yurko et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. application/pdf Hindawi Publishing Corporation Hindawi Publishing Corporation |
| spellingShingle | Buongiorno, Jacopo Youngblood, Robert Yurko, Joseph P Demonstration of Emulator-Based Bayesian Calibration of Safety Analysis Codes: Theory and Formulation |
| title | Demonstration of Emulator-Based Bayesian Calibration of Safety Analysis Codes: Theory and Formulation |
| title_full | Demonstration of Emulator-Based Bayesian Calibration of Safety Analysis Codes: Theory and Formulation |
| title_fullStr | Demonstration of Emulator-Based Bayesian Calibration of Safety Analysis Codes: Theory and Formulation |
| title_full_unstemmed | Demonstration of Emulator-Based Bayesian Calibration of Safety Analysis Codes: Theory and Formulation |
| title_short | Demonstration of Emulator-Based Bayesian Calibration of Safety Analysis Codes: Theory and Formulation |
| title_sort | demonstration of emulator based bayesian calibration of safety analysis codes theory and formulation |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/98088 https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6501-2836 |
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