Global population growth, technology, and Malthusian constraints: A quantitative growth theoretic perspective
We structurally estimate a two-sector Schumpeterian growth model with endogenous population and finite land reserves to study the long run evolution of global population, technological progress and the demand for food. The estimated model closely replicates trajectories for world population, GDP, se...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Technical Report |
| Language: | en_US |
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MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change
2015
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| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/99413 |
| _version_ | 1826198236298215424 |
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| author | Lanz, B. Dietz, S. Swanson, T. |
| author_facet | Lanz, B. Dietz, S. Swanson, T. |
| author_sort | Lanz, B. |
| collection | MIT |
| description | We structurally estimate a two-sector Schumpeterian growth model with endogenous population and finite land reserves to study the long run evolution of global population, technological progress and the demand for food. The estimated model closely replicates trajectories for world population, GDP, sectoral productivity growth and crop land area from 1960 to 2010. Projections from 2010 onwards show a slowdown of technological progress, and because it is a key determinant of fertility costs, significant population growth. By 2100 global population reaches 12 billion and agricultural production doubles, but the land constraint does not bind because of capital investment and technological progress. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T11:01:33Z |
| format | Technical Report |
| id | mit-1721.1/99413 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| language | en_US |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T11:01:33Z |
| publishDate | 2015 |
| publisher | MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/994132019-04-12T12:29:29Z Global population growth, technology, and Malthusian constraints: A quantitative growth theoretic perspective Lanz, B. Dietz, S. Swanson, T. We structurally estimate a two-sector Schumpeterian growth model with endogenous population and finite land reserves to study the long run evolution of global population, technological progress and the demand for food. The estimated model closely replicates trajectories for world population, GDP, sectoral productivity growth and crop land area from 1960 to 2010. Projections from 2010 onwards show a slowdown of technological progress, and because it is a key determinant of fertility costs, significant population growth. By 2100 global population reaches 12 billion and agricultural production doubles, but the land constraint does not bind because of capital investment and technological progress. Funding from the MAVA foundation is gratefully acknowledged. 2015-10-22T14:23:21Z 2015-10-22T14:23:21Z 2015-10 Technical Report http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/99413 Report 283 en_US MIT Joint Program Report Series;283 application/pdf MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change |
| spellingShingle | Lanz, B. Dietz, S. Swanson, T. Global population growth, technology, and Malthusian constraints: A quantitative growth theoretic perspective |
| title | Global population growth, technology, and Malthusian constraints: A quantitative growth theoretic perspective |
| title_full | Global population growth, technology, and Malthusian constraints: A quantitative growth theoretic perspective |
| title_fullStr | Global population growth, technology, and Malthusian constraints: A quantitative growth theoretic perspective |
| title_full_unstemmed | Global population growth, technology, and Malthusian constraints: A quantitative growth theoretic perspective |
| title_short | Global population growth, technology, and Malthusian constraints: A quantitative growth theoretic perspective |
| title_sort | global population growth technology and malthusian constraints a quantitative growth theoretic perspective |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/99413 |
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