Vectorial capacity of Aedes aegypti : effects of temperature and implications for global dengue epidemic potential
Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral disease that occurs mainly in the tropics and subtropics but has a high potential to spread to new areas. Dengue infections are climate sensitive, so it is important to better understand how changing climate factors affect the potential for geographic spread and futu...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | English |
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2014
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| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10356/103965 http://hdl.handle.net/10220/19487 |
| _version_ | 1811691659617894400 |
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| author | Liu-Helmersson, Jing Stenlund, Hans Wilder-Smith, Annelies Rocklöv, Joacim |
| author2 | Moreira, Luciano A. |
| author_facet | Moreira, Luciano A. Liu-Helmersson, Jing Stenlund, Hans Wilder-Smith, Annelies Rocklöv, Joacim |
| author_sort | Liu-Helmersson, Jing |
| collection | NTU |
| description | Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral disease that occurs mainly in the tropics and subtropics but has a high potential to spread to new areas. Dengue infections are climate sensitive, so it is important to better understand how changing climate factors affect the potential for geographic spread and future dengue epidemics. Vectorial capacity (VC) describes a vector's propensity to transmit dengue taking into account human, virus, and vector interactions. VC is highly temperature dependent, but most dengue models only take mean temperature values into account. Recent evidence shows that diurnal temperature range (DTR) plays an important role in influencing the behavior of the primary dengue vector Aedes aegypti. In this study, we used relative VC to estimate dengue epidemic potential (DEP) based on the temperature and DTR dependence of the parameters of A. aegypti. We found a strong temperature dependence of DEP; it peaked at a mean temperature of 29.3°C when DTR was 0°C and at 20°C when DTR was 20°C. Increasing average temperatures up to 29°C led to an increased DEP, but temperatures above 29°C reduced DEP. In tropical areas where the mean temperatures are close to 29°C, a small DTR increased DEP while a large DTR reduced it. In cold to temperate or extremely hot climates where the mean temperatures are far from 29°C, increasing DTR was associated with increasing DEP. Incorporating these findings using historical and predicted temperature and DTR over a two hundred year period (1901–2099), we found an increasing trend of global DEP in temperate regions. Small increases in DEP were observed over the last 100 years and large increases are expected by the end of this century in temperate Northern Hemisphere regions using climate change projections. These findings illustrate the importance of including DTR when mapping DEP based on VC. |
| first_indexed | 2024-10-01T06:23:25Z |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | ntu-10356/103965 |
| institution | Nanyang Technological University |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-10-01T06:23:25Z |
| publishDate | 2014 |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | ntu-10356/1039652022-02-16T16:30:43Z Vectorial capacity of Aedes aegypti : effects of temperature and implications for global dengue epidemic potential Liu-Helmersson, Jing Stenlund, Hans Wilder-Smith, Annelies Rocklöv, Joacim Moreira, Luciano A. Lee Kong Chian School of Medicine (LKCMedicine) DRNTU::Science::Medicine Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral disease that occurs mainly in the tropics and subtropics but has a high potential to spread to new areas. Dengue infections are climate sensitive, so it is important to better understand how changing climate factors affect the potential for geographic spread and future dengue epidemics. Vectorial capacity (VC) describes a vector's propensity to transmit dengue taking into account human, virus, and vector interactions. VC is highly temperature dependent, but most dengue models only take mean temperature values into account. Recent evidence shows that diurnal temperature range (DTR) plays an important role in influencing the behavior of the primary dengue vector Aedes aegypti. In this study, we used relative VC to estimate dengue epidemic potential (DEP) based on the temperature and DTR dependence of the parameters of A. aegypti. We found a strong temperature dependence of DEP; it peaked at a mean temperature of 29.3°C when DTR was 0°C and at 20°C when DTR was 20°C. Increasing average temperatures up to 29°C led to an increased DEP, but temperatures above 29°C reduced DEP. In tropical areas where the mean temperatures are close to 29°C, a small DTR increased DEP while a large DTR reduced it. In cold to temperate or extremely hot climates where the mean temperatures are far from 29°C, increasing DTR was associated with increasing DEP. Incorporating these findings using historical and predicted temperature and DTR over a two hundred year period (1901–2099), we found an increasing trend of global DEP in temperate regions. Small increases in DEP were observed over the last 100 years and large increases are expected by the end of this century in temperate Northern Hemisphere regions using climate change projections. These findings illustrate the importance of including DTR when mapping DEP based on VC. Published version 2014-06-02T02:49:54Z 2019-12-06T21:23:39Z 2014-06-02T02:49:54Z 2019-12-06T21:23:39Z 2014 2014 Journal Article Liu-Helmersson, J., Stenlund, H., Wilder-Smith, A., & Rocklöv, J. (2014). Vectorial Capacity of Aedes aegypti: Effects of Temperature and Implications for Global Dengue Epidemic Potential. PLoS ONE, 9(3). 1932-6203 https://hdl.handle.net/10356/103965 http://hdl.handle.net/10220/19487 10.1371/journal.pone.0089783 24603439 en PLoS ONE © 2014 Liu-Helmersson et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. application/pdf |
| spellingShingle | DRNTU::Science::Medicine Liu-Helmersson, Jing Stenlund, Hans Wilder-Smith, Annelies Rocklöv, Joacim Vectorial capacity of Aedes aegypti : effects of temperature and implications for global dengue epidemic potential |
| title | Vectorial capacity of Aedes aegypti : effects of temperature and implications for global dengue epidemic potential |
| title_full | Vectorial capacity of Aedes aegypti : effects of temperature and implications for global dengue epidemic potential |
| title_fullStr | Vectorial capacity of Aedes aegypti : effects of temperature and implications for global dengue epidemic potential |
| title_full_unstemmed | Vectorial capacity of Aedes aegypti : effects of temperature and implications for global dengue epidemic potential |
| title_short | Vectorial capacity of Aedes aegypti : effects of temperature and implications for global dengue epidemic potential |
| title_sort | vectorial capacity of aedes aegypti effects of temperature and implications for global dengue epidemic potential |
| topic | DRNTU::Science::Medicine |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10356/103965 http://hdl.handle.net/10220/19487 |
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