An urn model of COVID-19 dynamics under social lockdown
In 2020, the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) caused a global pandemic of the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). It could be helpful to be able to simulate the dynamics of the transmission of the virus so that relevant authorities and prepare and allocate resources to h...
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Other Authors: | |
| Format: | Final Year Project (FYP) |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Nanyang Technological University
2021
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10356/148429 |
| _version_ | 1811694001012604928 |
|---|---|
| author | Goh, Pog Siew |
| author2 | Cheong Siew Ann |
| author_facet | Cheong Siew Ann Goh, Pog Siew |
| author_sort | Goh, Pog Siew |
| collection | NTU |
| description | In 2020, the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) caused a global pandemic of the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). It could be helpful to be able to simulate the dynamics of the transmission of the virus so that relevant authorities and prepare and allocate resources to help infected individuals or help curb further widespread transmission. In this paper, we use a mathematical model- the urn model to map the behaviour of virus transmission in a social lockdown environment. We also simulated the dynamics of the virus transmission to observe trends and behaviour using the Gillespie algorithm. We review the effectiveness and accuracy of the mathematical model and algorithm used in our simulation. We propose that the algorithm could be useful to accurately simulate such dynamics in future relevant studies. |
| first_indexed | 2024-10-01T07:00:37Z |
| format | Final Year Project (FYP) |
| id | ntu-10356/148429 |
| institution | Nanyang Technological University |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-10-01T07:00:37Z |
| publishDate | 2021 |
| publisher | Nanyang Technological University |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | ntu-10356/1484292023-02-28T23:16:57Z An urn model of COVID-19 dynamics under social lockdown Goh, Pog Siew Cheong Siew Ann School of Physical and Mathematical Sciences cheongsa@ntu.edu.sg Science::Physics In 2020, the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) caused a global pandemic of the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). It could be helpful to be able to simulate the dynamics of the transmission of the virus so that relevant authorities and prepare and allocate resources to help infected individuals or help curb further widespread transmission. In this paper, we use a mathematical model- the urn model to map the behaviour of virus transmission in a social lockdown environment. We also simulated the dynamics of the virus transmission to observe trends and behaviour using the Gillespie algorithm. We review the effectiveness and accuracy of the mathematical model and algorithm used in our simulation. We propose that the algorithm could be useful to accurately simulate such dynamics in future relevant studies. Bachelor of Science in Physics 2021-04-27T06:39:48Z 2021-04-27T06:39:48Z 2021 Final Year Project (FYP) Goh, P. S. (2021). An urn model of COVID-19 dynamics under social lockdown. Final Year Project (FYP), Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. https://hdl.handle.net/10356/148429 https://hdl.handle.net/10356/148429 en application/pdf Nanyang Technological University |
| spellingShingle | Science::Physics Goh, Pog Siew An urn model of COVID-19 dynamics under social lockdown |
| title | An urn model of COVID-19 dynamics under social lockdown |
| title_full | An urn model of COVID-19 dynamics under social lockdown |
| title_fullStr | An urn model of COVID-19 dynamics under social lockdown |
| title_full_unstemmed | An urn model of COVID-19 dynamics under social lockdown |
| title_short | An urn model of COVID-19 dynamics under social lockdown |
| title_sort | urn model of covid 19 dynamics under social lockdown |
| topic | Science::Physics |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10356/148429 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT gohpogsiew anurnmodelofcovid19dynamicsundersociallockdown AT gohpogsiew urnmodelofcovid19dynamicsundersociallockdown |