Modeling face reliability in tunneling : a copula approach
This research develops a copula-enabled approach for modeling and assessing the reliability of the dependent system with incomplete probability information. A bivariate framework consisting of the supporting pressure and the ground settlement is proposed to estimate the excavation face reliability i...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
|---|---|
| Other Authors: | |
| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
2021
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10356/151669 |
| _version_ | 1811690774966829056 |
|---|---|
| author | Pan, Yue Zhang, Limao Wu, Xianguo Qin, Wenwei Skibniewski, Miroslaw J. |
| author2 | School of Civil and Environmental Engineering |
| author_facet | School of Civil and Environmental Engineering Pan, Yue Zhang, Limao Wu, Xianguo Qin, Wenwei Skibniewski, Miroslaw J. |
| author_sort | Pan, Yue |
| collection | NTU |
| description | This research develops a copula-enabled approach for modeling and assessing the reliability of the dependent system with incomplete probability information. A bivariate framework consisting of the supporting pressure and the ground settlement is proposed to estimate the excavation face reliability in tunneling under limited observations. The impacts of the selection of copula functions, the variation of the failure criteria, and the size of the measured data and Monte Carlo simulation sampling on the reliability estimation result are explored. A realistic tunnel case in the Wuhan metro system, China, is used to demonstrate the applicability and effectiveness of the developed approach. Results indicate that: (1) the failure probability will lead to an overestimated result, which is more than twice of the reference value (that is without considering the negative dependence); (2) the commonly used Gaussian copula function is likely to underestimate the failure probability and lead to less conservative designs; (3) a setting size of 10 5 samples is reasonable in the case to achieve the required quality in estimation; and (4) the failure probability gradually rises along with an increase of the limit value of the supporting pressure and decreases along with an increase of the limit value of the ground settlement. |
| first_indexed | 2024-10-01T06:09:21Z |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | ntu-10356/151669 |
| institution | Nanyang Technological University |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-10-01T06:09:21Z |
| publishDate | 2021 |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | ntu-10356/1516692021-07-01T08:39:33Z Modeling face reliability in tunneling : a copula approach Pan, Yue Zhang, Limao Wu, Xianguo Qin, Wenwei Skibniewski, Miroslaw J. School of Civil and Environmental Engineering Engineering::Civil engineering Copula Reliability Analysis This research develops a copula-enabled approach for modeling and assessing the reliability of the dependent system with incomplete probability information. A bivariate framework consisting of the supporting pressure and the ground settlement is proposed to estimate the excavation face reliability in tunneling under limited observations. The impacts of the selection of copula functions, the variation of the failure criteria, and the size of the measured data and Monte Carlo simulation sampling on the reliability estimation result are explored. A realistic tunnel case in the Wuhan metro system, China, is used to demonstrate the applicability and effectiveness of the developed approach. Results indicate that: (1) the failure probability will lead to an overestimated result, which is more than twice of the reference value (that is without considering the negative dependence); (2) the commonly used Gaussian copula function is likely to underestimate the failure probability and lead to less conservative designs; (3) a setting size of 10 5 samples is reasonable in the case to achieve the required quality in estimation; and (4) the failure probability gradually rises along with an increase of the limit value of the supporting pressure and decreases along with an increase of the limit value of the ground settlement. Nanyang Technological University The National Key Research Projects of China (Grant No. 2016YFC0800208), the Start-Up Grant at Nanyang Technological University, Singapore (No. M4082160.030), and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 51778262 and 71571078) are acknowledged for their financial support of this research. 2021-07-01T08:39:33Z 2021-07-01T08:39:33Z 2019 Journal Article Pan, Y., Zhang, L., Wu, X., Qin, W. & Skibniewski, M. J. (2019). Modeling face reliability in tunneling : a copula approach. Computers and Geotechnics, 109, 272-286. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.compgeo.2019.01.027 0266-352X 0000-0002-7245-3741 https://hdl.handle.net/10356/151669 10.1016/j.compgeo.2019.01.027 2-s2.0-85061371530 109 272 286 en M4082160.030 Computers and Geotechnics © 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. |
| spellingShingle | Engineering::Civil engineering Copula Reliability Analysis Pan, Yue Zhang, Limao Wu, Xianguo Qin, Wenwei Skibniewski, Miroslaw J. Modeling face reliability in tunneling : a copula approach |
| title | Modeling face reliability in tunneling : a copula approach |
| title_full | Modeling face reliability in tunneling : a copula approach |
| title_fullStr | Modeling face reliability in tunneling : a copula approach |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modeling face reliability in tunneling : a copula approach |
| title_short | Modeling face reliability in tunneling : a copula approach |
| title_sort | modeling face reliability in tunneling a copula approach |
| topic | Engineering::Civil engineering Copula Reliability Analysis |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10356/151669 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT panyue modelingfacereliabilityintunnelingacopulaapproach AT zhanglimao modelingfacereliabilityintunnelingacopulaapproach AT wuxianguo modelingfacereliabilityintunnelingacopulaapproach AT qinwenwei modelingfacereliabilityintunnelingacopulaapproach AT skibniewskimiroslawj modelingfacereliabilityintunnelingacopulaapproach |