Aircraft trajectory prediction with enriched intent using encoder-decoder architecture
Aircraft trajectory prediction is a challenging problem in air traffic control, especially for conflict detection. Traditional trajectory predictors require a variety of inputs such as flight-plans, aircraft performance models, meteorological forecasts, etc. Many of these data are subjected to envir...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
|---|---|
| Other Authors: | |
| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
2022
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10356/155806 |
| _version_ | 1811693787820326912 |
|---|---|
| author | Tran, Phu N. Nguyen, Hoang Quang Viet Pham, Duc-Thinh Alam, Sameer |
| author2 | School of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering |
| author_facet | School of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering Tran, Phu N. Nguyen, Hoang Quang Viet Pham, Duc-Thinh Alam, Sameer |
| author_sort | Tran, Phu N. |
| collection | NTU |
| description | Aircraft trajectory prediction is a challenging problem in air traffic control, especially for conflict detection. Traditional trajectory predictors require a variety of inputs such as flight-plans, aircraft performance models, meteorological forecasts, etc. Many of these data are subjected to environmental uncertainties. Further, limited information about such inputs, especially the lack of aircraft tactical intent, makes trajectory prediction a challenging task. In this work, we propose a deep learning model that performs trajectory prediction by modeling and incorporating aircraft tactical intent. The proposed model adopts the encoder-decoder architecture and makes use of the convolutional layer as well as Gated Recurrent Units (GRUs). The proposed model does not require explicit information about aircraft performance and wind data. Results demonstrate that the provision of enriched aircraft intent, together with appropriate model design, could improve the prediction error up to 30% at a prediction horizon of 10 minutes (from 4.9 nautical miles to 3.4 nautical miles). The model also guarantees the mean error growth rate with increasing look-ahead time to be lower than 0.2 nautical miles per minute. In addition, the model offers a very low variance in the prediction, which satisfies the variance-standard specified by EUROCONTROL (EU Organization for Safety and Navigation of Air Traffic) for trajectory predictors. The proposed model also outperforms the state-of-the-art trajectory prediction model, where the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) is reduced from 0.0203 to 0.0018 for latitude prediction, and from 0.0482 to 0.0021 for longitude prediction in a single prediction step of 15 seconds look-ahead. We showed that the pre-trained model on ADS-B data maintains its high performance, in terms of cross-track and along-track errors, when being validated in the Bluesky Air Traffic Simulator. The proposed model would significantly improve the performance of conflict detection systems where such trajectory prediction models are needed. |
| first_indexed | 2024-10-01T06:57:14Z |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | ntu-10356/155806 |
| institution | Nanyang Technological University |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-10-01T06:57:14Z |
| publishDate | 2022 |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | ntu-10356/1558062022-03-26T20:10:21Z Aircraft trajectory prediction with enriched intent using encoder-decoder architecture Tran, Phu N. Nguyen, Hoang Quang Viet Pham, Duc-Thinh Alam, Sameer School of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering Air Traffic Management Research Institute Engineering::Computer science and engineering::Computing methodologies::Artificial intelligence Aircraft Trajectory Prediction Encoder-Decode Recurrent Neural Network Aircraft trajectory prediction is a challenging problem in air traffic control, especially for conflict detection. Traditional trajectory predictors require a variety of inputs such as flight-plans, aircraft performance models, meteorological forecasts, etc. Many of these data are subjected to environmental uncertainties. Further, limited information about such inputs, especially the lack of aircraft tactical intent, makes trajectory prediction a challenging task. In this work, we propose a deep learning model that performs trajectory prediction by modeling and incorporating aircraft tactical intent. The proposed model adopts the encoder-decoder architecture and makes use of the convolutional layer as well as Gated Recurrent Units (GRUs). The proposed model does not require explicit information about aircraft performance and wind data. Results demonstrate that the provision of enriched aircraft intent, together with appropriate model design, could improve the prediction error up to 30% at a prediction horizon of 10 minutes (from 4.9 nautical miles to 3.4 nautical miles). The model also guarantees the mean error growth rate with increasing look-ahead time to be lower than 0.2 nautical miles per minute. In addition, the model offers a very low variance in the prediction, which satisfies the variance-standard specified by EUROCONTROL (EU Organization for Safety and Navigation of Air Traffic) for trajectory predictors. The proposed model also outperforms the state-of-the-art trajectory prediction model, where the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) is reduced from 0.0203 to 0.0018 for latitude prediction, and from 0.0482 to 0.0021 for longitude prediction in a single prediction step of 15 seconds look-ahead. We showed that the pre-trained model on ADS-B data maintains its high performance, in terms of cross-track and along-track errors, when being validated in the Bluesky Air Traffic Simulator. The proposed model would significantly improve the performance of conflict detection systems where such trajectory prediction models are needed. Civil Aviation Authority of Singapore (CAAS) National Research Foundation (NRF) Published version This work was supported in part by the National Research Foundation, Singapore; and in part by the Civil Aviation Authority of Singapore under the Aviation Transformation Program. 2022-03-22T01:58:04Z 2022-03-22T01:58:04Z 2022 Journal Article Tran, P. N., Nguyen, H. Q. V., Pham, D. & Alam, S. (2022). Aircraft trajectory prediction with enriched intent using encoder-decoder architecture. IEEE Access, 10, 17881-17896. https://dx.doi.org/10.1109/ACCESS.2022.3149231 2169-3536 https://hdl.handle.net/10356/155806 10.1109/ACCESS.2022.3149231 2-s2.0-85124184389 10 17881 17896 en IEEE Access © 2022 IEEE. This journal is 100% open access, which means that all content is freely available without charge to users or their institutions. All articles accepted after 12 June 2019 are published under a CC BY 4.0 license, and the author retains copyright. Users are allowed to read, download, copy, distribute, print, search, or link to the full texts of the articles, or use them for any other lawful purpose, as long as proper attribution is given. application/pdf |
| spellingShingle | Engineering::Computer science and engineering::Computing methodologies::Artificial intelligence Aircraft Trajectory Prediction Encoder-Decode Recurrent Neural Network Tran, Phu N. Nguyen, Hoang Quang Viet Pham, Duc-Thinh Alam, Sameer Aircraft trajectory prediction with enriched intent using encoder-decoder architecture |
| title | Aircraft trajectory prediction with enriched intent using encoder-decoder architecture |
| title_full | Aircraft trajectory prediction with enriched intent using encoder-decoder architecture |
| title_fullStr | Aircraft trajectory prediction with enriched intent using encoder-decoder architecture |
| title_full_unstemmed | Aircraft trajectory prediction with enriched intent using encoder-decoder architecture |
| title_short | Aircraft trajectory prediction with enriched intent using encoder-decoder architecture |
| title_sort | aircraft trajectory prediction with enriched intent using encoder decoder architecture |
| topic | Engineering::Computer science and engineering::Computing methodologies::Artificial intelligence Aircraft Trajectory Prediction Encoder-Decode Recurrent Neural Network |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10356/155806 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT tranphun aircrafttrajectorypredictionwithenrichedintentusingencoderdecoderarchitecture AT nguyenhoangquangviet aircrafttrajectorypredictionwithenrichedintentusingencoderdecoderarchitecture AT phamducthinh aircrafttrajectorypredictionwithenrichedintentusingencoderdecoderarchitecture AT alamsameer aircrafttrajectorypredictionwithenrichedintentusingencoderdecoderarchitecture |