Early warning signals for critical transitions in complex systems
Not all types of change are slow and gradual. Some changes are sudden and abrupt. Many of these sudden changes can also be catastrophic. Therefore, it is important to be on the lookout for early warning signals, which arise universally in complex systems. To date, a lot is known about early warning...
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| Formato: | Final Year Project (FYP) |
| Idioma: | English |
| Publicado em: |
Nanyang Technological University
2023
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| Acesso em linha: | https://hdl.handle.net/10356/166526 |
| _version_ | 1826109660198862848 |
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| author | Ho, Cheong Wei |
| author2 | Cheong Siew Ann |
| author_facet | Cheong Siew Ann Ho, Cheong Wei |
| author_sort | Ho, Cheong Wei |
| collection | NTU |
| description | Not all types of change are slow and gradual. Some changes are sudden and abrupt. Many of these sudden changes can also be catastrophic. Therefore, it is important to be on the lookout for early warning signals, which arise universally in complex systems. To date, a lot is known about early warning signals theoretically, in particular the increasing variance, skewness and kurtosis of high-frequency time series data, and these have been tested in numerous real-world complex systems. However, many questions remain unanswered. Early warning signals present in specific types of complex systems do exist and have been identified, but what if there is a general type of early warning signal that we can then use to apply to systems that have not had specific early warning signals yet? thesis, we focus on the question of what the maximum values of these statistical indicators would be prior to a critical transition. If we know these maximum values, we could predict the time of the critical transition, which is another important question that has yet to be answered. |
| first_indexed | 2024-10-01T02:21:53Z |
| format | Final Year Project (FYP) |
| id | ntu-10356/166526 |
| institution | Nanyang Technological University |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-10-01T02:21:53Z |
| publishDate | 2023 |
| publisher | Nanyang Technological University |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | ntu-10356/1665262023-05-15T15:39:08Z Early warning signals for critical transitions in complex systems Ho, Cheong Wei Cheong Siew Ann School of Physical and Mathematical Sciences cheongsa@ntu.edu.sg Science::Physics Not all types of change are slow and gradual. Some changes are sudden and abrupt. Many of these sudden changes can also be catastrophic. Therefore, it is important to be on the lookout for early warning signals, which arise universally in complex systems. To date, a lot is known about early warning signals theoretically, in particular the increasing variance, skewness and kurtosis of high-frequency time series data, and these have been tested in numerous real-world complex systems. However, many questions remain unanswered. Early warning signals present in specific types of complex systems do exist and have been identified, but what if there is a general type of early warning signal that we can then use to apply to systems that have not had specific early warning signals yet? thesis, we focus on the question of what the maximum values of these statistical indicators would be prior to a critical transition. If we know these maximum values, we could predict the time of the critical transition, which is another important question that has yet to be answered. Bachelor of Science in Physics 2023-05-12T07:08:42Z 2023-05-12T07:08:42Z 2023 Final Year Project (FYP) Ho, C. W. (2023). Early warning signals for critical transitions in complex systems. Final Year Project (FYP), Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. https://hdl.handle.net/10356/166526 https://hdl.handle.net/10356/166526 en application/pdf Nanyang Technological University |
| spellingShingle | Science::Physics Ho, Cheong Wei Early warning signals for critical transitions in complex systems |
| title | Early warning signals for critical transitions in complex systems |
| title_full | Early warning signals for critical transitions in complex systems |
| title_fullStr | Early warning signals for critical transitions in complex systems |
| title_full_unstemmed | Early warning signals for critical transitions in complex systems |
| title_short | Early warning signals for critical transitions in complex systems |
| title_sort | early warning signals for critical transitions in complex systems |
| topic | Science::Physics |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10356/166526 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT hocheongwei earlywarningsignalsforcriticaltransitionsincomplexsystems |