Border control for infectious respiratory disease pandemics: a modelling study for H1N1 and four strains of SARS-CoV-2
Post-pandemic economic recovery relies on border control for safe cross-border movement. Following the COVID-19 pandemic, we investigate whether effective strategies generalize across diseases and variants. For four SARS-CoV-2 variants and influenza A-H1N1, we simulated 21 strategy families of varyi...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Other Authors: | |
| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
2023
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10356/169178 |
| _version_ | 1826116147933609984 |
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| author | Lim, Nigel Wei-Han Lim, Jue Tao Dickens, Borame Lee |
| author2 | Lee Kong Chian School of Medicine (LKCMedicine) |
| author_facet | Lee Kong Chian School of Medicine (LKCMedicine) Lim, Nigel Wei-Han Lim, Jue Tao Dickens, Borame Lee |
| author_sort | Lim, Nigel Wei-Han |
| collection | NTU |
| description | Post-pandemic economic recovery relies on border control for safe cross-border movement. Following the COVID-19 pandemic, we investigate whether effective strategies generalize across diseases and variants. For four SARS-CoV-2 variants and influenza A-H1N1, we simulated 21 strategy families of varying test types and frequencies, quantifying expected transmission risk, relative to no control, by strategy family and quarantine length. We also determined minimum quarantine lengths to suppress relative risk below given thresholds. SARS-CoV-2 variants showed similar relative risk across strategy families and quarantine lengths, with at most 2 days' between-variant difference in minimum quarantine lengths. ART-based and PCR-based strategies showed comparable effectiveness, with regular testing strategies requiring at most 9 days. For influenza A-H1N1, ART-based strategies were ineffective. Daily ART testing reduced relative risk only 9% faster than without regular testing. PCR-based strategies were moderately effective, with daily PCR (0-day delay) testing requiring 16 days for the second-most stringent threshold. Viruses with high typical viral loads and low transmission risk given low viral loads, such as SARS-CoV-2, are effectively controlled with moderate-sensitivity tests (ARTs) and modest quarantine periods. Viruses with low typical viral loads and substantial transmission risk at low viral loads, such as influenza A-H1N1, require high-sensitivity tests (PCR) and longer quarantine periods. |
| first_indexed | 2024-10-01T04:06:35Z |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | ntu-10356/169178 |
| institution | Nanyang Technological University |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-10-01T04:06:35Z |
| publishDate | 2023 |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | ntu-10356/1691782023-07-09T15:38:37Z Border control for infectious respiratory disease pandemics: a modelling study for H1N1 and four strains of SARS-CoV-2 Lim, Nigel Wei-Han Lim, Jue Tao Dickens, Borame Lee Lee Kong Chian School of Medicine (LKCMedicine) Science::Medicine Quarantine Viral Load Post-pandemic economic recovery relies on border control for safe cross-border movement. Following the COVID-19 pandemic, we investigate whether effective strategies generalize across diseases and variants. For four SARS-CoV-2 variants and influenza A-H1N1, we simulated 21 strategy families of varying test types and frequencies, quantifying expected transmission risk, relative to no control, by strategy family and quarantine length. We also determined minimum quarantine lengths to suppress relative risk below given thresholds. SARS-CoV-2 variants showed similar relative risk across strategy families and quarantine lengths, with at most 2 days' between-variant difference in minimum quarantine lengths. ART-based and PCR-based strategies showed comparable effectiveness, with regular testing strategies requiring at most 9 days. For influenza A-H1N1, ART-based strategies were ineffective. Daily ART testing reduced relative risk only 9% faster than without regular testing. PCR-based strategies were moderately effective, with daily PCR (0-day delay) testing requiring 16 days for the second-most stringent threshold. Viruses with high typical viral loads and low transmission risk given low viral loads, such as SARS-CoV-2, are effectively controlled with moderate-sensitivity tests (ARTs) and modest quarantine periods. Viruses with low typical viral loads and substantial transmission risk at low viral loads, such as influenza A-H1N1, require high-sensitivity tests (PCR) and longer quarantine periods. Published version This work was supported by the National University of Singapore (NUS)’s Reimagine Research Fund (no grant number) and the NUS Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health’s Start Up Fund (22-5118-A0001). 2023-07-05T00:33:11Z 2023-07-05T00:33:11Z 2023 Journal Article Lim, N. W., Lim, J. T. & Dickens, B. L. (2023). Border control for infectious respiratory disease pandemics: a modelling study for H1N1 and four strains of SARS-CoV-2. Viruses, 15(4), 978-. https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/v15040978 1999-4915 https://hdl.handle.net/10356/169178 10.3390/v15040978 37112958 2-s2.0-85156195944 4 15 978 en 22-5118-A0001 Viruses © 2023 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https:// creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ 4.0/). application/pdf |
| spellingShingle | Science::Medicine Quarantine Viral Load Lim, Nigel Wei-Han Lim, Jue Tao Dickens, Borame Lee Border control for infectious respiratory disease pandemics: a modelling study for H1N1 and four strains of SARS-CoV-2 |
| title | Border control for infectious respiratory disease pandemics: a modelling study for H1N1 and four strains of SARS-CoV-2 |
| title_full | Border control for infectious respiratory disease pandemics: a modelling study for H1N1 and four strains of SARS-CoV-2 |
| title_fullStr | Border control for infectious respiratory disease pandemics: a modelling study for H1N1 and four strains of SARS-CoV-2 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Border control for infectious respiratory disease pandemics: a modelling study for H1N1 and four strains of SARS-CoV-2 |
| title_short | Border control for infectious respiratory disease pandemics: a modelling study for H1N1 and four strains of SARS-CoV-2 |
| title_sort | border control for infectious respiratory disease pandemics a modelling study for h1n1 and four strains of sars cov 2 |
| topic | Science::Medicine Quarantine Viral Load |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10356/169178 |
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