The utility of historical records for hazard analysis in an area of marginal cyclone influence
Shark Bay Marine Park is a UNESCO World Heritage Property located in a region of marginal tropical cyclone influence. Sustainable management of this unique environment as the climate changes requires a quantified understanding of its vulnerability to natural hazards. Here, we outline a structured an...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
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| Other Authors: | |
| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
2023
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| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10356/170018 |
| _version_ | 1811693049156206592 |
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| author | Switzer, Adam D. Christensen, Joseph Aldridge, Joanna Taylor, David Churchill, Jim Watson, Holly Fraser, Matthew W. Shaw, Jenny |
| author2 | Asian School of the Environment |
| author_facet | Asian School of the Environment Switzer, Adam D. Christensen, Joseph Aldridge, Joanna Taylor, David Churchill, Jim Watson, Holly Fraser, Matthew W. Shaw, Jenny |
| author_sort | Switzer, Adam D. |
| collection | NTU |
| description | Shark Bay Marine Park is a UNESCO World Heritage Property located in a region of marginal tropical cyclone influence. Sustainable management of this unique environment as the climate changes requires a quantified understanding of its vulnerability to natural hazards. Here, we outline a structured analysis of novel historical archive information that has uncovered reports of an extreme storm surge associated with a Tropical Cyclone in 1921 that generated remarkable overland flow which left fish and sharks stranded up to 9.66 km (6 miles) inland. Weighted information from historical archives is placed in a new framework and provide inputs to modelling of this event which improves the understanding of its magnitude and furnishes records of the impacts of what occurred on that day and notably also in the years following. The suite of plausible tracks that reproduce the historical data contextualise the storm as a marginal Category 4 or 5 storm and its return interval as equivalent or slightly greater than the current local planning level for coastal flooding in the region. The outcome underscores the global importance of examining the probable maximum event for risk management in areas of marginal cyclone influence where vulnerable ecosystems or vital regional infrastructure of key economic importance are located, and the need to factor in TC risk in marine conservation and planning in the Shark Bay World Heritage Property. |
| first_indexed | 2024-10-01T06:45:30Z |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | ntu-10356/170018 |
| institution | Nanyang Technological University |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-10-01T06:45:30Z |
| publishDate | 2023 |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | ntu-10356/1700182023-08-28T15:30:45Z The utility of historical records for hazard analysis in an area of marginal cyclone influence Switzer, Adam D. Christensen, Joseph Aldridge, Joanna Taylor, David Churchill, Jim Watson, Holly Fraser, Matthew W. Shaw, Jenny Asian School of the Environment Earth Observatory of Singapore Social sciences::Geography Coastal Zone Management Conservation Management Shark Bay Marine Park is a UNESCO World Heritage Property located in a region of marginal tropical cyclone influence. Sustainable management of this unique environment as the climate changes requires a quantified understanding of its vulnerability to natural hazards. Here, we outline a structured analysis of novel historical archive information that has uncovered reports of an extreme storm surge associated with a Tropical Cyclone in 1921 that generated remarkable overland flow which left fish and sharks stranded up to 9.66 km (6 miles) inland. Weighted information from historical archives is placed in a new framework and provide inputs to modelling of this event which improves the understanding of its magnitude and furnishes records of the impacts of what occurred on that day and notably also in the years following. The suite of plausible tracks that reproduce the historical data contextualise the storm as a marginal Category 4 or 5 storm and its return interval as equivalent or slightly greater than the current local planning level for coastal flooding in the region. The outcome underscores the global importance of examining the probable maximum event for risk management in areas of marginal cyclone influence where vulnerable ecosystems or vital regional infrastructure of key economic importance are located, and the need to factor in TC risk in marine conservation and planning in the Shark Bay World Heritage Property. Ministry of Education (MOE) National Research Foundation (NRF) Published version A.D.S. and J.C. (at Murdoch University) were assisted by Australian Research Council LP150100649 and J.C. by the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. A.D.S. was supported by the Singapore Ministry of Education Academic Research Fund MOE2019- T3-1-004 and Earth Observatory of Singapore (grant no. 003113-00001) via its funding from the National Research Foundation Singapore and the Singapore Ministry of Education under the Research Centres of Excellence initiative. The authors acknowledge HOLSEA and PALSEA, working groups of the International Union for Quaternary Sciences (INQUA) and Past Global Changes (PAGES), which in turn received support from the Swiss Academy of Sciences and the Chinese Academy of Sciences. MWF was supported by the Robson and Robertson Research Fellowship awarded by UWA, and the Integrated Coastal Analyses and Sensor Technology (ICoAST) project with funding from the Indian Ocean Marine Research Centre, a joint partnership between UWA, AIMS, CSIRO and DPIRD WA. 2023-08-22T00:56:31Z 2023-08-22T00:56:31Z 2023 Journal Article Switzer, A. D., Christensen, J., Aldridge, J., Taylor, D., Churchill, J., Watson, H., Fraser, M. W. & Shaw, J. (2023). The utility of historical records for hazard analysis in an area of marginal cyclone influence. Communications Earth and Environment, 4(1), 1-12. https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00844-z 2662-4435 https://hdl.handle.net/10356/170018 10.1038/s43247-023-00844-z 2-s2.0-85160793346 1 4 1 12 en MOE2019-T3-1-004 003113-00001 Communications Earth and Environment © 2023 The Author(s). Open Access. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/ licenses/by/4.0/. application/pdf |
| spellingShingle | Social sciences::Geography Coastal Zone Management Conservation Management Switzer, Adam D. Christensen, Joseph Aldridge, Joanna Taylor, David Churchill, Jim Watson, Holly Fraser, Matthew W. Shaw, Jenny The utility of historical records for hazard analysis in an area of marginal cyclone influence |
| title | The utility of historical records for hazard analysis in an area of marginal cyclone influence |
| title_full | The utility of historical records for hazard analysis in an area of marginal cyclone influence |
| title_fullStr | The utility of historical records for hazard analysis in an area of marginal cyclone influence |
| title_full_unstemmed | The utility of historical records for hazard analysis in an area of marginal cyclone influence |
| title_short | The utility of historical records for hazard analysis in an area of marginal cyclone influence |
| title_sort | utility of historical records for hazard analysis in an area of marginal cyclone influence |
| topic | Social sciences::Geography Coastal Zone Management Conservation Management |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10356/170018 |
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