The role of anthropogenic forcings on historical sea-level change in the Indo-Pacific warm pool region
Detecting and attributing sea-level rise over different spatiotemporal scales is essential for low-lying and highly populated coastal regions. Using the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, we evaluate the role of ant...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Other Authors: | |
| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
2024
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10356/174095 |
| _version_ | 1811693071195176960 |
|---|---|
| author | Samanta, Dhrubajyoti Vairagi, Vedant Richter, Kristin McDonagh, Elaine L. Karnauskas, Kristopher B. Goodkin, Nathalie Fairbank Chew, Lock Yue Horton, Benjamin Peter |
| author2 | Asian School of the Environment |
| author_facet | Asian School of the Environment Samanta, Dhrubajyoti Vairagi, Vedant Richter, Kristin McDonagh, Elaine L. Karnauskas, Kristopher B. Goodkin, Nathalie Fairbank Chew, Lock Yue Horton, Benjamin Peter |
| author_sort | Samanta, Dhrubajyoti |
| collection | NTU |
| description | Detecting and attributing sea-level rise over different spatiotemporal scales is essential for low-lying and highly populated coastal regions. Using the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, we evaluate the role of anthropogenic forcing in sea-level change in the historical (1950–2014) period in the Indo-Pacific warm pool region. We use three models that have at least 10 ensemble members, corresponding to different DAMIP simulations. We determined the changes in regional sea level from both natural and anthropogenic forcings. Our results demonstrate: (a) the emergence of an anthropogenic footprint on regional sterodynamic sea-level change has a large spatiotemporal diversity over the Indo-Pacific warm pool region with the earliest emergence in the western Indian Ocean; (b) a significant rise in dynamic sea level (DSL) (up to 25 mm) and thermosteric (up to 40 mm) sea level over the western Indian Ocean due to greenhouse gas forcing; (c) a positive Indian Ocean Dipole-like pattern in the DSL changes over the tropical Indian Ocean; (d) a significant increase in the halosteric contribution to sea-level rise in the Indo-Pacific warm pool region, and (e) a pronounced rise of manometric sea level (up to 20 mm) over shallow oceans and coastal regions in recent decades. These results provide a comprehensive spatiotemporal analysis of the attribution of anthropogenic factors to sea-level changes in the Indo-Pacific warm pool region. |
| first_indexed | 2024-10-01T06:45:51Z |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | ntu-10356/174095 |
| institution | Nanyang Technological University |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-10-01T06:45:51Z |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | ntu-10356/1740952024-03-19T15:37:08Z The role of anthropogenic forcings on historical sea-level change in the Indo-Pacific warm pool region Samanta, Dhrubajyoti Vairagi, Vedant Richter, Kristin McDonagh, Elaine L. Karnauskas, Kristopher B. Goodkin, Nathalie Fairbank Chew, Lock Yue Horton, Benjamin Peter Asian School of the Environment School of Physical and Mathematical Sciences University of Colorado Boulder American Museum of Natural History University of Reading NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research National Oceanography Centre, Southampton Earth Observatory of Singapore Earth and Environmental Sciences Attribution Sea level CMIP6 DAMIP Climate change Indo-Pacific warm pool Detecting and attributing sea-level rise over different spatiotemporal scales is essential for low-lying and highly populated coastal regions. Using the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, we evaluate the role of anthropogenic forcing in sea-level change in the historical (1950–2014) period in the Indo-Pacific warm pool region. We use three models that have at least 10 ensemble members, corresponding to different DAMIP simulations. We determined the changes in regional sea level from both natural and anthropogenic forcings. Our results demonstrate: (a) the emergence of an anthropogenic footprint on regional sterodynamic sea-level change has a large spatiotemporal diversity over the Indo-Pacific warm pool region with the earliest emergence in the western Indian Ocean; (b) a significant rise in dynamic sea level (DSL) (up to 25 mm) and thermosteric (up to 40 mm) sea level over the western Indian Ocean due to greenhouse gas forcing; (c) a positive Indian Ocean Dipole-like pattern in the DSL changes over the tropical Indian Ocean; (d) a significant increase in the halosteric contribution to sea-level rise in the Indo-Pacific warm pool region, and (e) a pronounced rise of manometric sea level (up to 20 mm) over shallow oceans and coastal regions in recent decades. These results provide a comprehensive spatiotemporal analysis of the attribution of anthropogenic factors to sea-level changes in the Indo-Pacific warm pool region. Ministry of Education (MOE) National Environmental Agency (NEA) National Research Foundation (NRF) Published version This Research is supported by the National Research Foundation, Singapore, and National Environment Agency, Singapore under the National Sea level Programme Funding Initiative (Award No. USS-IF-2020-3). Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not reflect the views of the National Research Foundation, Singapore, and the National Environment Agency, Singapore. This study was also supported by Singapore Ministry of Education (MOE) Academic Research Fund Tier 3 Project MOE-2019-T3-1-004 funded at Earth Observatory of Singapore. This is Earth Observatory of Singapore contribution number 520. KBK acknowledges funding support from the NASA Sea level Change Science Program, Award 80NSSC20K1123. 2024-03-18T01:35:32Z 2024-03-18T01:35:32Z 2024 Journal Article Samanta, D., Vairagi, V., Richter, K., McDonagh, E. L., Karnauskas, K. B., Goodkin, N. F., Chew, L. Y. & Horton, B. P. (2024). The role of anthropogenic forcings on historical sea-level change in the Indo-Pacific warm pool region. Earth's Future, 12(3), e2023EF003684-. https://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003684 2328-4277 https://hdl.handle.net/10356/174095 10.1029/2023EF003684 3 12 e2023EF003684 en USS-IF-2020-3 MOE 2019-T3-1-004 80NSSC20K1123 Earth's Future © 2024.The Authors. Earth's Future published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Geophysical Union. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution‐NonCommercial‐NoDerivs License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non‐commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made. application/pdf |
| spellingShingle | Earth and Environmental Sciences Attribution Sea level CMIP6 DAMIP Climate change Indo-Pacific warm pool Samanta, Dhrubajyoti Vairagi, Vedant Richter, Kristin McDonagh, Elaine L. Karnauskas, Kristopher B. Goodkin, Nathalie Fairbank Chew, Lock Yue Horton, Benjamin Peter The role of anthropogenic forcings on historical sea-level change in the Indo-Pacific warm pool region |
| title | The role of anthropogenic forcings on historical sea-level change in the Indo-Pacific warm pool region |
| title_full | The role of anthropogenic forcings on historical sea-level change in the Indo-Pacific warm pool region |
| title_fullStr | The role of anthropogenic forcings on historical sea-level change in the Indo-Pacific warm pool region |
| title_full_unstemmed | The role of anthropogenic forcings on historical sea-level change in the Indo-Pacific warm pool region |
| title_short | The role of anthropogenic forcings on historical sea-level change in the Indo-Pacific warm pool region |
| title_sort | role of anthropogenic forcings on historical sea level change in the indo pacific warm pool region |
| topic | Earth and Environmental Sciences Attribution Sea level CMIP6 DAMIP Climate change Indo-Pacific warm pool |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10356/174095 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT samantadhrubajyoti theroleofanthropogenicforcingsonhistoricalsealevelchangeintheindopacificwarmpoolregion AT vairagivedant theroleofanthropogenicforcingsonhistoricalsealevelchangeintheindopacificwarmpoolregion AT richterkristin theroleofanthropogenicforcingsonhistoricalsealevelchangeintheindopacificwarmpoolregion AT mcdonaghelainel theroleofanthropogenicforcingsonhistoricalsealevelchangeintheindopacificwarmpoolregion AT karnauskaskristopherb theroleofanthropogenicforcingsonhistoricalsealevelchangeintheindopacificwarmpoolregion AT goodkinnathaliefairbank theroleofanthropogenicforcingsonhistoricalsealevelchangeintheindopacificwarmpoolregion AT chewlockyue theroleofanthropogenicforcingsonhistoricalsealevelchangeintheindopacificwarmpoolregion AT hortonbenjaminpeter theroleofanthropogenicforcingsonhistoricalsealevelchangeintheindopacificwarmpoolregion AT samantadhrubajyoti roleofanthropogenicforcingsonhistoricalsealevelchangeintheindopacificwarmpoolregion AT vairagivedant roleofanthropogenicforcingsonhistoricalsealevelchangeintheindopacificwarmpoolregion AT richterkristin roleofanthropogenicforcingsonhistoricalsealevelchangeintheindopacificwarmpoolregion AT mcdonaghelainel roleofanthropogenicforcingsonhistoricalsealevelchangeintheindopacificwarmpoolregion AT karnauskaskristopherb roleofanthropogenicforcingsonhistoricalsealevelchangeintheindopacificwarmpoolregion AT goodkinnathaliefairbank roleofanthropogenicforcingsonhistoricalsealevelchangeintheindopacificwarmpoolregion AT chewlockyue roleofanthropogenicforcingsonhistoricalsealevelchangeintheindopacificwarmpoolregion AT hortonbenjaminpeter roleofanthropogenicforcingsonhistoricalsealevelchangeintheindopacificwarmpoolregion |