Grey-box modelling and forecasting of stormwater flow in sewer systems
The goal of this thesis is to wrap up my endeavours in the realm of modellingand probabilistic forecasting. The work is anchored in my two quite differetpapers and is therefore essentially two-legged. The firs leg deals with the devel-opment and estimation of a grey-box model suited for forecasting,...
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| Format: | Thesis-Doctor of Philosophy |
| Language: | English |
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Nanyang Technological University
2025
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| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10356/182532 |
| _version_ | 1826110681788710912 |
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| author | Bjerregård, Mathias Blicher |
| author2 | Dusit Niyato |
| author_facet | Dusit Niyato Bjerregård, Mathias Blicher |
| author_sort | Bjerregård, Mathias Blicher |
| collection | NTU |
| description | The goal of this thesis is to wrap up my endeavours in the realm of modellingand probabilistic forecasting. The work is anchored in my two quite differetpapers and is therefore essentially two-legged. The firs leg deals with the devel-opment and estimation of a grey-box model suited for forecasting, and this is theprimary subject of the thesis. In this case, I study the modelling and forecastingof rainfall-response in a Danish stormwater tunnel, but the focus is really onthe modelling process and its inherent challenges rather than the specifi case.This exploration would therefore be relevant for practical grey-box modellerswithin many fields e.g. wind power forecasting and financia forecasting. Thesecond leg deals with forecast evaluation, and is exemplifie by applying someevaluation metrics to the stormwater forecasting model developed in the firs legfollowed by a discussion of what kind of value is gained from such an evaluationeffort Again, the relevance of the demonstrated work on forecast evaluation isnot limited to the specifi case, but can be equivalently applied to probabilisticforecasts in other areas. |
| first_indexed | 2025-03-09T10:07:36Z |
| format | Thesis-Doctor of Philosophy |
| id | ntu-10356/182532 |
| institution | Nanyang Technological University |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2025-03-09T10:07:36Z |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| publisher | Nanyang Technological University |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | ntu-10356/1825322025-03-04T02:57:33Z Grey-box modelling and forecasting of stormwater flow in sewer systems Bjerregård, Mathias Blicher Dusit Niyato Interdisciplinary Graduate School (IGS) Technical University of Denmark DNIYATO@ntu.edu.sg Computer and Information Science The goal of this thesis is to wrap up my endeavours in the realm of modellingand probabilistic forecasting. The work is anchored in my two quite differetpapers and is therefore essentially two-legged. The firs leg deals with the devel-opment and estimation of a grey-box model suited for forecasting, and this is theprimary subject of the thesis. In this case, I study the modelling and forecastingof rainfall-response in a Danish stormwater tunnel, but the focus is really onthe modelling process and its inherent challenges rather than the specifi case.This exploration would therefore be relevant for practical grey-box modellerswithin many fields e.g. wind power forecasting and financia forecasting. Thesecond leg deals with forecast evaluation, and is exemplifie by applying someevaluation metrics to the stormwater forecasting model developed in the firs legfollowed by a discussion of what kind of value is gained from such an evaluationeffort Again, the relevance of the demonstrated work on forecast evaluation isnot limited to the specifi case, but can be equivalently applied to probabilisticforecasts in other areas. Doctor of Philosophy 2025-02-07T00:54:01Z 2025-02-07T00:54:01Z 2025 Thesis-Doctor of Philosophy Bjerregård, M. B. (2025). Grey-box modelling and forecasting of stormwater flow in sewer systems. Doctoral thesis, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. https://hdl.handle.net/10356/182532 https://hdl.handle.net/10356/182532 10.32657/10356/182532 en This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC 4.0). application/pdf Nanyang Technological University |
| spellingShingle | Computer and Information Science Bjerregård, Mathias Blicher Grey-box modelling and forecasting of stormwater flow in sewer systems |
| title | Grey-box modelling and forecasting of stormwater flow in sewer systems |
| title_full | Grey-box modelling and forecasting of stormwater flow in sewer systems |
| title_fullStr | Grey-box modelling and forecasting of stormwater flow in sewer systems |
| title_full_unstemmed | Grey-box modelling and forecasting of stormwater flow in sewer systems |
| title_short | Grey-box modelling and forecasting of stormwater flow in sewer systems |
| title_sort | grey box modelling and forecasting of stormwater flow in sewer systems |
| topic | Computer and Information Science |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10356/182532 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT bjerregardmathiasblicher greyboxmodellingandforecastingofstormwaterflowinsewersystems |