Forecasting Singapore's electronics trade and production.
In this study on the Singapore electronics industry, four domestic variables, namely retained electronics imports (LRIM), domestic electronics export (LDX), electronics re-exports (LRX) and industrial production (LIP), were linked with global chip sales (LCHIP), in a vector error correction model (V...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Final Year Project (FYP) |
| Published: |
2008
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| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10356/2155 |
| _version_ | 1811695002981498880 |
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| author | Ng, Hui Min. Ong, Si Hua. Tan, Pin Ru. |
| author2 | Choy, Keen Meng |
| author_facet | Choy, Keen Meng Ng, Hui Min. Ong, Si Hua. Tan, Pin Ru. |
| author_sort | Ng, Hui Min. |
| collection | NTU |
| description | In this study on the Singapore electronics industry, four domestic variables, namely retained electronics imports (LRIM), domestic electronics export (LDX), electronics re-exports (LRX) and industrial production (LIP), were linked with global chip sales (LCHIP), in a vector error correction model (VECM). Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models were also constructed for the four domestic variables to serve as a benchmark for the evaluation of forecast accuracy. In-sample and out-of-sample forecasts were generated using the recursive estimation method and both classes of models were evaluated based on the root mean square error (RMSE) of their forecasts. The results showed that the VECM model of lag length 2 proved to be better for forecasting LDX and LRX while ARIMA models performed better for LRIM and LIP. |
| first_indexed | 2024-10-01T07:16:33Z |
| format | Final Year Project (FYP) |
| id | ntu-10356/2155 |
| institution | Nanyang Technological University |
| last_indexed | 2024-10-01T07:16:33Z |
| publishDate | 2008 |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | ntu-10356/21552019-12-10T12:07:54Z Forecasting Singapore's electronics trade and production. Ng, Hui Min. Ong, Si Hua. Tan, Pin Ru. Choy, Keen Meng School of Humanities and Social Sciences DRNTU::Business::Industries and labor DRNTU::Business::Management::Forecasting In this study on the Singapore electronics industry, four domestic variables, namely retained electronics imports (LRIM), domestic electronics export (LDX), electronics re-exports (LRX) and industrial production (LIP), were linked with global chip sales (LCHIP), in a vector error correction model (VECM). Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models were also constructed for the four domestic variables to serve as a benchmark for the evaluation of forecast accuracy. In-sample and out-of-sample forecasts were generated using the recursive estimation method and both classes of models were evaluated based on the root mean square error (RMSE) of their forecasts. The results showed that the VECM model of lag length 2 proved to be better for forecasting LDX and LRX while ARIMA models performed better for LRIM and LIP. Bachelor of Arts 2008-09-16T06:35:14Z 2008-09-16T06:35:14Z 2008 2008 Final Year Project (FYP) http://hdl.handle.net/10356/2155 Nanyang Technological University application/pdf |
| spellingShingle | DRNTU::Business::Industries and labor DRNTU::Business::Management::Forecasting Ng, Hui Min. Ong, Si Hua. Tan, Pin Ru. Forecasting Singapore's electronics trade and production. |
| title | Forecasting Singapore's electronics trade and production. |
| title_full | Forecasting Singapore's electronics trade and production. |
| title_fullStr | Forecasting Singapore's electronics trade and production. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Forecasting Singapore's electronics trade and production. |
| title_short | Forecasting Singapore's electronics trade and production. |
| title_sort | forecasting singapore s electronics trade and production |
| topic | DRNTU::Business::Industries and labor DRNTU::Business::Management::Forecasting |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/10356/2155 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT nghuimin forecastingsingaporeselectronicstradeandproduction AT ongsihua forecastingsingaporeselectronicstradeandproduction AT tanpinru forecastingsingaporeselectronicstradeandproduction |