| Summary: | The series of disasters following the 11 March 2011 Tohoku earthquake (Mw 9.0) is a clear example of the need of managing risks from multiple sources. These sources can be correlated or independent. For example, the disaster was characterised by the occurrence of subsequent events (i.e. earthquake, tsunami and nuclear risk) as well as independent events (e.g. the heavy snow and harsh weather conditions following the earthquake). The scope of this project is to analyse methods of assessing risks from multiple sources, in particular focussing on earthquake and tsunami-related events. The project will include:
(1) Analysis of guidelines and literature on combinatorial risk assessment. In the past few years, there has been an increasing focus on multi-hazard risk assessment, reflected in literature but also in policy guidelines. The concept of combinatorial risk is also well known in economy, thus finance literature should be also analysed.
(2) Development of a consistent statistical approach for the calculation of the combinatorial risk, including uncertainty analysis.
(3) Application of the developed method to the case study in West Sumatra, Indonesia.
|
|---|