A forecast of Singapore’s tourism arrivals by air using time series analysis
Tourists from Indonesia, China and Malaysia rank top three among Singapore’s overall inbound tourists. This research develops and compares three univariate time series models to forecast short-term tourist arrivals from these three countries. Based on the historical data over the period from January...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Other Authors: | |
| Format: | Final Year Project (FYP) |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
2014
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10356/59394 |
| _version_ | 1811677434482786304 |
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| author | Natanael, Calvin Yao, Tianshu Zhang, Ningxin |
| author2 | School of Humanities and Social Sciences |
| author_facet | School of Humanities and Social Sciences Natanael, Calvin Yao, Tianshu Zhang, Ningxin |
| author_sort | Natanael, Calvin |
| collection | NTU |
| description | Tourists from Indonesia, China and Malaysia rank top three among Singapore’s overall inbound tourists. This research develops and compares three univariate time series models to forecast short-term tourist arrivals from these three countries. Based on the historical data over the period from January 1995 to December 2011 for Malaysia, and from January 1998 to December 2011 for Indonesia and China, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) and ARIMA-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARIMA-GARCH) models are employed. The out-of-sample forecasting performance of these best-fitting models are investigated further over the period from January 2012 to June 2013, according to the root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and Diebold-Mariano (DM) Statistic. The optimal model is applied to obtain post-sample forecasts for the next six months. ARIMA proves to be the optimal model for all three countries. This paper will not only provide valuable information to aviation and tourism sectors, but also boost interest to forecast international travel demand for Singapore. |
| first_indexed | 2024-10-01T02:37:18Z |
| format | Final Year Project (FYP) |
| id | ntu-10356/59394 |
| institution | Nanyang Technological University |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-10-01T02:37:18Z |
| publishDate | 2014 |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | ntu-10356/593942019-12-10T12:58:23Z A forecast of Singapore’s tourism arrivals by air using time series analysis Natanael, Calvin Yao, Tianshu Zhang, Ningxin School of Humanities and Social Sciences Wang Wei-Siang DRNTU::Social sciences::Economic development::Singapore Tourists from Indonesia, China and Malaysia rank top three among Singapore’s overall inbound tourists. This research develops and compares three univariate time series models to forecast short-term tourist arrivals from these three countries. Based on the historical data over the period from January 1995 to December 2011 for Malaysia, and from January 1998 to December 2011 for Indonesia and China, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) and ARIMA-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARIMA-GARCH) models are employed. The out-of-sample forecasting performance of these best-fitting models are investigated further over the period from January 2012 to June 2013, according to the root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and Diebold-Mariano (DM) Statistic. The optimal model is applied to obtain post-sample forecasts for the next six months. ARIMA proves to be the optimal model for all three countries. This paper will not only provide valuable information to aviation and tourism sectors, but also boost interest to forecast international travel demand for Singapore. Bachelor of Arts 2014-05-05T02:46:44Z 2014-05-05T02:46:44Z 2014 2014 Final Year Project (FYP) http://hdl.handle.net/10356/59394 en Nanyang Technological University 52 p. application/pdf |
| spellingShingle | DRNTU::Social sciences::Economic development::Singapore Natanael, Calvin Yao, Tianshu Zhang, Ningxin A forecast of Singapore’s tourism arrivals by air using time series analysis |
| title | A forecast of Singapore’s tourism arrivals by air using time series analysis |
| title_full | A forecast of Singapore’s tourism arrivals by air using time series analysis |
| title_fullStr | A forecast of Singapore’s tourism arrivals by air using time series analysis |
| title_full_unstemmed | A forecast of Singapore’s tourism arrivals by air using time series analysis |
| title_short | A forecast of Singapore’s tourism arrivals by air using time series analysis |
| title_sort | forecast of singapore s tourism arrivals by air using time series analysis |
| topic | DRNTU::Social sciences::Economic development::Singapore |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/10356/59394 |
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