The risk of dengue for non-immune foreign visitors to the 2016 summer olympic games in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Background Rio de Janeiro in Brazil will host the Summer Olympic Games in 2016. About 400,000 non-immune foreign tourists are expected to attend the games. As Brazil is the country with the highest number of dengue cases worldwide, concern about the risk of dengue for travelers is justified. Metho...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | English |
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2016
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| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10356/80523 http://hdl.handle.net/10220/40516 |
| _version_ | 1824456936266924032 |
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| author | Burattini, Marcelo Nascimento Greenhalgh, David Wilder-Smith, Annelies Amaku, Marcos Lopez, Luis Fernandez Coutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezerra Ximenes, Raphael Struchiner, Claudio José Massad, Eduardo |
| author2 | Lee Kong Chian School of Medicine (LKCMedicine) |
| author_facet | Lee Kong Chian School of Medicine (LKCMedicine) Burattini, Marcelo Nascimento Greenhalgh, David Wilder-Smith, Annelies Amaku, Marcos Lopez, Luis Fernandez Coutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezerra Ximenes, Raphael Struchiner, Claudio José Massad, Eduardo |
| author_sort | Burattini, Marcelo Nascimento |
| collection | NTU |
| description | Background
Rio de Janeiro in Brazil will host the Summer Olympic Games in 2016. About 400,000 non-immune foreign tourists are expected to attend the games. As Brazil is the country with the highest number of dengue cases worldwide, concern about the risk of dengue for travelers is justified.
Methods
A mathematical model to calculate the risk of developing dengue for foreign tourists attending the Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro in 2016 is proposed. A system of differential equation models the spread of dengue amongst the resident population and a stochastic approximation is used to assess the risk to tourists. Historical reported dengue time series in Rio de Janeiro for the years 2000-2015 is used to find out the time dependent force of infection, which is then used to estimate the potential risks to a large tourist cohort. The worst outbreak of dengue occurred in 2012 and this and the other years in the history of Dengue in Rio are used to discuss potential risks to tourists amongst visitors to the forthcoming Rio Olympics.
Results
The individual risk to be infected by dengue is very much dependent on the ratio asymptomatic/symptomatic considered but independently of this the worst month of August in the period studied in terms of dengue transmission, occurred in 2007.
Conclusions
If dengue returns in 2016 with the pattern observed in the worst month of August in history (2007), the expected number of symptomatic and asymptomatic dengue cases among tourists will be 23 and 206 cases, respectively. This worst case scenario would have an incidence of 5.75 (symptomatic) and 51.5 (asymptomatic) per 100,000 individuals. |
| first_indexed | 2025-02-19T04:02:01Z |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | ntu-10356/80523 |
| institution | Nanyang Technological University |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2025-02-19T04:02:01Z |
| publishDate | 2016 |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | ntu-10356/805232022-02-16T16:30:30Z The risk of dengue for non-immune foreign visitors to the 2016 summer olympic games in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil Burattini, Marcelo Nascimento Greenhalgh, David Wilder-Smith, Annelies Amaku, Marcos Lopez, Luis Fernandez Coutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezerra Ximenes, Raphael Struchiner, Claudio José Massad, Eduardo Lee Kong Chian School of Medicine (LKCMedicine) Dengue Mathematical models Risk assessment Olympic games Travel medicine Background Rio de Janeiro in Brazil will host the Summer Olympic Games in 2016. About 400,000 non-immune foreign tourists are expected to attend the games. As Brazil is the country with the highest number of dengue cases worldwide, concern about the risk of dengue for travelers is justified. Methods A mathematical model to calculate the risk of developing dengue for foreign tourists attending the Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro in 2016 is proposed. A system of differential equation models the spread of dengue amongst the resident population and a stochastic approximation is used to assess the risk to tourists. Historical reported dengue time series in Rio de Janeiro for the years 2000-2015 is used to find out the time dependent force of infection, which is then used to estimate the potential risks to a large tourist cohort. The worst outbreak of dengue occurred in 2012 and this and the other years in the history of Dengue in Rio are used to discuss potential risks to tourists amongst visitors to the forthcoming Rio Olympics. Results The individual risk to be infected by dengue is very much dependent on the ratio asymptomatic/symptomatic considered but independently of this the worst month of August in the period studied in terms of dengue transmission, occurred in 2007. Conclusions If dengue returns in 2016 with the pattern observed in the worst month of August in history (2007), the expected number of symptomatic and asymptomatic dengue cases among tourists will be 23 and 206 cases, respectively. This worst case scenario would have an incidence of 5.75 (symptomatic) and 51.5 (asymptomatic) per 100,000 individuals. Published version 2016-05-10T08:34:06Z 2019-12-06T13:51:26Z 2016-05-10T08:34:06Z 2019-12-06T13:51:26Z 2016 Journal Article Ximenes, R., Amaku, M., Lopez, L. F., Coutinho, F. A. B., Burattini, M. N., Greenhalgh, D., et al. (2016). The risk of dengue for non-immune foreign visitors to the 2016 summer olympic games in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. BMC Infectious Diseases, 16(186). 1471-2334 https://hdl.handle.net/10356/80523 http://hdl.handle.net/10220/40516 10.1186/s12879-016-1517-z 27129407 en BMC Infectious Diseases © 2016 Ximenes et al. Open Access This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated 9 p. application/pdf |
| spellingShingle | Dengue Mathematical models Risk assessment Olympic games Travel medicine Burattini, Marcelo Nascimento Greenhalgh, David Wilder-Smith, Annelies Amaku, Marcos Lopez, Luis Fernandez Coutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezerra Ximenes, Raphael Struchiner, Claudio José Massad, Eduardo The risk of dengue for non-immune foreign visitors to the 2016 summer olympic games in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil |
| title | The risk of dengue for non-immune foreign visitors to the 2016 summer olympic games in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil |
| title_full | The risk of dengue for non-immune foreign visitors to the 2016 summer olympic games in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil |
| title_fullStr | The risk of dengue for non-immune foreign visitors to the 2016 summer olympic games in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil |
| title_full_unstemmed | The risk of dengue for non-immune foreign visitors to the 2016 summer olympic games in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil |
| title_short | The risk of dengue for non-immune foreign visitors to the 2016 summer olympic games in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil |
| title_sort | risk of dengue for non immune foreign visitors to the 2016 summer olympic games in rio de janeiro brazil |
| topic | Dengue Mathematical models Risk assessment Olympic games Travel medicine |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10356/80523 http://hdl.handle.net/10220/40516 |
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