Forecasting air passenger volume in Singapore: Determining the explanatory variables for econometric models
Nowadays aviation industry has become an important portion of Singapore economies progressively. It is essential to provide accurate prediction for aviation development. However, due to instability of economies, it is advisable to capture the impact of economy into forecasting. This paper explores s...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Other Authors: | |
| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
2017
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| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10356/80569 http://hdl.handle.net/10220/42258 |
| _version_ | 1824456301617348608 |
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| author | Guo, Rui Zhong, Zhao Wei |
| author2 | School of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering |
| author_facet | School of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering Guo, Rui Zhong, Zhao Wei |
| author_sort | Guo, Rui |
| collection | NTU |
| description | Nowadays aviation industry has become an important portion of Singapore economies progressively. It is essential to provide accurate prediction for aviation development. However, due to instability of economies, it is advisable to capture the impact of economy into forecasting. This paper explores several explanatory variables, such as Singapore GDP, China GDP, exchange rate and tourist numbers, to build econometric models to predict the air passenger movements and analyzes and compares the relative results from corresponding models. Before applying for model simulation, correlations among variables were checked. Various combinations of the variables were implemented to establish the models. Five econometric models were constructed for 18 years prediction from 1998 to 2015 in our study and the performance of these models were measured using MAPE, RMSE and degree of divergence. By comparing the 5 models, the variables effectiveness is investigated. Moreover, the impact of the variables was also scrutinized. Finally, appropriate models for Singapore situation are to be recommended. Afterwards, forecasting for the next 18 years till 2033 is conducted and analyzed to have a better idea of the future development. |
| first_indexed | 2025-02-19T03:51:56Z |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | ntu-10356/80569 |
| institution | Nanyang Technological University |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2025-02-19T03:51:56Z |
| publishDate | 2017 |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | ntu-10356/805692020-03-07T13:19:20Z Forecasting air passenger volume in Singapore: Determining the explanatory variables for econometric models Guo, Rui Zhong, Zhao Wei School of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering Econometric models Air passenger volume Nowadays aviation industry has become an important portion of Singapore economies progressively. It is essential to provide accurate prediction for aviation development. However, due to instability of economies, it is advisable to capture the impact of economy into forecasting. This paper explores several explanatory variables, such as Singapore GDP, China GDP, exchange rate and tourist numbers, to build econometric models to predict the air passenger movements and analyzes and compares the relative results from corresponding models. Before applying for model simulation, correlations among variables were checked. Various combinations of the variables were implemented to establish the models. Five econometric models were constructed for 18 years prediction from 1998 to 2015 in our study and the performance of these models were measured using MAPE, RMSE and degree of divergence. By comparing the 5 models, the variables effectiveness is investigated. Moreover, the impact of the variables was also scrutinized. Finally, appropriate models for Singapore situation are to be recommended. Afterwards, forecasting for the next 18 years till 2033 is conducted and analyzed to have a better idea of the future development. 2017-04-13T06:08:55Z 2019-12-06T13:52:24Z 2017-04-13T06:08:55Z 2019-12-06T13:52:24Z 2017 2017 Journal Article Guo, R., & Zhong, Z. W. (2017). Forecasting air passenger volume in Singapore: Determining the explanatory variables for econometric models. MATTER: International Journal of Science and Technology, 3(1), 123-139. 2454-5880 https://hdl.handle.net/10356/80569 http://hdl.handle.net/10220/42258 10.20319/Mijst.2017.31.123139 196318 en MATTER: International Journal of Science and Technology © 2017 The author and GRDS Publishing. |
| spellingShingle | Econometric models Air passenger volume Guo, Rui Zhong, Zhao Wei Forecasting air passenger volume in Singapore: Determining the explanatory variables for econometric models |
| title | Forecasting air passenger volume in Singapore: Determining the explanatory variables for econometric models |
| title_full | Forecasting air passenger volume in Singapore: Determining the explanatory variables for econometric models |
| title_fullStr | Forecasting air passenger volume in Singapore: Determining the explanatory variables for econometric models |
| title_full_unstemmed | Forecasting air passenger volume in Singapore: Determining the explanatory variables for econometric models |
| title_short | Forecasting air passenger volume in Singapore: Determining the explanatory variables for econometric models |
| title_sort | forecasting air passenger volume in singapore determining the explanatory variables for econometric models |
| topic | Econometric models Air passenger volume |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10356/80569 http://hdl.handle.net/10220/42258 |
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