Entropy Based Modelling for Estimating Demographic Trends
In this paper, an entropy-based method is proposed to forecast the demographical changes of countries. We formulate the estimation of future demographical profiles as a constrained optimization problem, anchored on the empirically validated assumption that the entropy of age distribution is increasi...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
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| Other Authors: | |
| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
2015
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| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10356/83650 http://hdl.handle.net/10220/39134 |
| _version_ | 1824456157103652864 |
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| author | Monterola, Christopher Li, Guoqi Zhao, Daxuan Xu, Yi Kuo, Shyh-Hao Xu, Hai-Yan Hu, Nan Zhao, Guangshe |
| author2 | Gao, Zhong-Ke |
| author_facet | Gao, Zhong-Ke Monterola, Christopher Li, Guoqi Zhao, Daxuan Xu, Yi Kuo, Shyh-Hao Xu, Hai-Yan Hu, Nan Zhao, Guangshe |
| author_sort | Monterola, Christopher |
| collection | NTU |
| description | In this paper, an entropy-based method is proposed to forecast the demographical changes of countries. We formulate the estimation of future demographical profiles as a constrained optimization problem, anchored on the empirically validated assumption that the entropy of age distribution is increasing in time. The procedure of the proposed method involves three stages, namely: 1) Prediction of the age distribution of a country’s population based on an “age-structured population model”; 2) Estimation the age distribution of each individual household size with an entropy-based formulation based on an “individual household size model”; and 3) Estimation the number of each household size based on a “total household size model”. The last stage is achieved by projecting the age distribution of the country’s population (obtained in stage 1) onto the age distributions of individual household sizes (obtained in stage 2). The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated by feeding real world data, and it is general and versatile enough to be extended to other time dependent demographic variables. |
| first_indexed | 2025-02-19T03:49:38Z |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | ntu-10356/83650 |
| institution | Nanyang Technological University |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2025-02-19T03:49:38Z |
| publishDate | 2015 |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | ntu-10356/836502022-02-16T16:27:11Z Entropy Based Modelling for Estimating Demographic Trends Monterola, Christopher Li, Guoqi Zhao, Daxuan Xu, Yi Kuo, Shyh-Hao Xu, Hai-Yan Hu, Nan Zhao, Guangshe Gao, Zhong-Ke School of Computer Engineering Computer Science and Engineering In this paper, an entropy-based method is proposed to forecast the demographical changes of countries. We formulate the estimation of future demographical profiles as a constrained optimization problem, anchored on the empirically validated assumption that the entropy of age distribution is increasing in time. The procedure of the proposed method involves three stages, namely: 1) Prediction of the age distribution of a country’s population based on an “age-structured population model”; 2) Estimation the age distribution of each individual household size with an entropy-based formulation based on an “individual household size model”; and 3) Estimation the number of each household size based on a “total household size model”. The last stage is achieved by projecting the age distribution of the country’s population (obtained in stage 1) onto the age distributions of individual household sizes (obtained in stage 2). The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated by feeding real world data, and it is general and versatile enough to be extended to other time dependent demographic variables. ASTAR (Agency for Sci., Tech. and Research, S’pore) Published version 2015-12-17T06:54:59Z 2019-12-06T15:27:31Z 2015-12-17T06:54:59Z 2019-12-06T15:27:31Z 2015 Journal Article Li, G., Zhao, D., Xu, Y., Kuo, S.-H., Xu, H.-Y., Hu, N., et al. (2015). Entropy Based Modelling for Estimating Demographic Trends. PLoS ONE, 10(9), e0137324-. 1932-6203 https://hdl.handle.net/10356/83650 http://hdl.handle.net/10220/39134 10.1371/journal.pone.0137324 26382594 en PLoS ONE © 2015 Li et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. 19 p. application/pdf |
| spellingShingle | Computer Science and Engineering Monterola, Christopher Li, Guoqi Zhao, Daxuan Xu, Yi Kuo, Shyh-Hao Xu, Hai-Yan Hu, Nan Zhao, Guangshe Entropy Based Modelling for Estimating Demographic Trends |
| title | Entropy Based Modelling for Estimating Demographic Trends |
| title_full | Entropy Based Modelling for Estimating Demographic Trends |
| title_fullStr | Entropy Based Modelling for Estimating Demographic Trends |
| title_full_unstemmed | Entropy Based Modelling for Estimating Demographic Trends |
| title_short | Entropy Based Modelling for Estimating Demographic Trends |
| title_sort | entropy based modelling for estimating demographic trends |
| topic | Computer Science and Engineering |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10356/83650 http://hdl.handle.net/10220/39134 |
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