Hurricane Sandy’s flood frequency increasing from year 1800 to 2100
Coastal flood hazard varies in response to changes in storm surge climatology and the sea level. Here we combine probabilistic projections of the sea level and storm surge climatology to estimate the temporal evolution of flood hazard. We find that New York City’s flood hazard has increased signific...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Other Authors: | |
| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
2019
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10356/84348 http://hdl.handle.net/10220/50421 |
| _version_ | 1811680755250626560 |
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| author | Lin, Ning Kopp, Robert E. Horton, Benjamin P. Donnelly, Jeffrey P. |
| author2 | Asian School of the Environment |
| author_facet | Asian School of the Environment Lin, Ning Kopp, Robert E. Horton, Benjamin P. Donnelly, Jeffrey P. |
| author_sort | Lin, Ning |
| collection | NTU |
| description | Coastal flood hazard varies in response to changes in storm surge climatology and the sea level. Here we combine probabilistic projections of the sea level and storm surge climatology to estimate the temporal evolution of flood hazard. We find that New York City’s flood hazard has increased significantly over the past two centuries and is very likely to increase more sharply over the 21st century. Due to the effect of sea level rise, the return period of Hurricane Sandy’s flood height decreased by a factor of ∼3× from year 1800 to 2000 and is estimated to decrease by a further ∼4.4× from 2000 to 2100 under a moderate-emissions pathway. When potential storm climatology change over the 21st century is also accounted for, Sandy’s return period is estimated to decrease by ∼3× to 17× from 2000 to 2100. |
| first_indexed | 2024-10-01T03:30:05Z |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | ntu-10356/84348 |
| institution | Nanyang Technological University |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-10-01T03:30:05Z |
| publishDate | 2019 |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | ntu-10356/843482022-02-16T16:30:23Z Hurricane Sandy’s flood frequency increasing from year 1800 to 2100 Lin, Ning Kopp, Robert E. Horton, Benjamin P. Donnelly, Jeffrey P. Asian School of the Environment Earth Observatory of Singapore Storm Surge Science::Geology Hurricane Sandy Coastal flood hazard varies in response to changes in storm surge climatology and the sea level. Here we combine probabilistic projections of the sea level and storm surge climatology to estimate the temporal evolution of flood hazard. We find that New York City’s flood hazard has increased significantly over the past two centuries and is very likely to increase more sharply over the 21st century. Due to the effect of sea level rise, the return period of Hurricane Sandy’s flood height decreased by a factor of ∼3× from year 1800 to 2000 and is estimated to decrease by a further ∼4.4× from 2000 to 2100 under a moderate-emissions pathway. When potential storm climatology change over the 21st century is also accounted for, Sandy’s return period is estimated to decrease by ∼3× to 17× from 2000 to 2100. Published version 2019-11-18T01:25:56Z 2019-12-06T15:43:16Z 2019-11-18T01:25:56Z 2019-12-06T15:43:16Z 2016 Journal Article Lin, N., Kopp, R. E., Horton, B. P., & Donnelly, J. P. (2016). Hurricane Sandy’s flood frequency increasing from year 1800 to 2100. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 113(43), 12071-12075. doi:10.1073/pnas.1604386113 0027-8424 https://hdl.handle.net/10356/84348 http://hdl.handle.net/10220/50421 10.1073/pnas.1604386113 27790992 en Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences © 2016 The Author(s) (published by National Academy of Sciences). This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. 5 p. application/pdf |
| spellingShingle | Storm Surge Science::Geology Hurricane Sandy Lin, Ning Kopp, Robert E. Horton, Benjamin P. Donnelly, Jeffrey P. Hurricane Sandy’s flood frequency increasing from year 1800 to 2100 |
| title | Hurricane Sandy’s flood frequency increasing from year 1800 to 2100 |
| title_full | Hurricane Sandy’s flood frequency increasing from year 1800 to 2100 |
| title_fullStr | Hurricane Sandy’s flood frequency increasing from year 1800 to 2100 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Hurricane Sandy’s flood frequency increasing from year 1800 to 2100 |
| title_short | Hurricane Sandy’s flood frequency increasing from year 1800 to 2100 |
| title_sort | hurricane sandy s flood frequency increasing from year 1800 to 2100 |
| topic | Storm Surge Science::Geology Hurricane Sandy |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10356/84348 http://hdl.handle.net/10220/50421 |
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