Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era
We assess the relationship between temperature and global sea-level (GSL) variability over the Common Era through a statistical metaanalysis of proxy relative sea-level reconstructions and tide-gauge data. GSL rose at 0.1 ± 0.1 mm/y (2σ) over 0–700 CE. A GSL fall of 0.2 ± 0.2 mm/y over 1000–1400 CE...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , |
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| Other Authors: | |
| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
2019
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10356/88758 http://hdl.handle.net/10220/50460 |
| _version_ | 1811693287469219840 |
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| author | Kopp, Robert E. Kemp, Andrew C. Bittermann, Klaus Horton, Benjamin P. Donnelly, Jeffrey P. Gehrels, W. Roland Hay, Carling C. Mitrovica, Jerry X. Morrow, Eric D. Rahmstorf, Stefan |
| author2 | Asian School of the Environment |
| author_facet | Asian School of the Environment Kopp, Robert E. Kemp, Andrew C. Bittermann, Klaus Horton, Benjamin P. Donnelly, Jeffrey P. Gehrels, W. Roland Hay, Carling C. Mitrovica, Jerry X. Morrow, Eric D. Rahmstorf, Stefan |
| author_sort | Kopp, Robert E. |
| collection | NTU |
| description | We assess the relationship between temperature and global sea-level (GSL) variability over the Common Era through a statistical metaanalysis of proxy relative sea-level reconstructions and tide-gauge data. GSL rose at 0.1 ± 0.1 mm/y (2σ) over 0–700 CE. A GSL fall of 0.2 ± 0.2 mm/y over 1000–1400 CE is associated with ∼0.2 °C global mean cooling. A significant GSL acceleration began in the 19th century and yielded a 20th century rise that is extremely likely (probability P≥0.95) faster than during any of the previous 27 centuries. A semiempirical model calibrated against the GSL reconstruction indicates that, in the absence of anthropogenic climate change, it is extremely likely (P=0.95) that 20th century GSL would have risen by less than 51% of the observed 13.8±1.5 cm. The new semiempirical model largely reconciles previous differences between semiempirical 21st century GSL projections and the process model-based projections summarized in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report. |
| first_indexed | 2024-10-01T06:49:17Z |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | ntu-10356/88758 |
| institution | Nanyang Technological University |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-10-01T06:49:17Z |
| publishDate | 2019 |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | ntu-10356/887582022-02-16T16:30:46Z Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era Kopp, Robert E. Kemp, Andrew C. Bittermann, Klaus Horton, Benjamin P. Donnelly, Jeffrey P. Gehrels, W. Roland Hay, Carling C. Mitrovica, Jerry X. Morrow, Eric D. Rahmstorf, Stefan Asian School of the Environment Earth Observatory of Singapore Sea Level Science::Geology Common Era We assess the relationship between temperature and global sea-level (GSL) variability over the Common Era through a statistical metaanalysis of proxy relative sea-level reconstructions and tide-gauge data. GSL rose at 0.1 ± 0.1 mm/y (2σ) over 0–700 CE. A GSL fall of 0.2 ± 0.2 mm/y over 1000–1400 CE is associated with ∼0.2 °C global mean cooling. A significant GSL acceleration began in the 19th century and yielded a 20th century rise that is extremely likely (probability P≥0.95) faster than during any of the previous 27 centuries. A semiempirical model calibrated against the GSL reconstruction indicates that, in the absence of anthropogenic climate change, it is extremely likely (P=0.95) that 20th century GSL would have risen by less than 51% of the observed 13.8±1.5 cm. The new semiempirical model largely reconciles previous differences between semiempirical 21st century GSL projections and the process model-based projections summarized in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report. Published version 2019-11-25T05:56:57Z 2019-12-06T17:10:22Z 2019-11-25T05:56:57Z 2019-12-06T17:10:22Z 2016 Journal Article Kopp, R. E., Kemp, A. C., Bittermann, K., Horton, B. P., Donnelly, J. P., Gehrels, W. R., … Rahmstorf, S. (2016). Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 113(11), E1434-E1441. doi:10.1073/pnas.1517056113 0027-8424 https://hdl.handle.net/10356/88758 http://hdl.handle.net/10220/50460 10.1073/pnas.1517056113 26903659 en Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences © 2016 The Author(s) (published by National Academy of Sciences). This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. 11 p. application/pdf |
| spellingShingle | Sea Level Science::Geology Common Era Kopp, Robert E. Kemp, Andrew C. Bittermann, Klaus Horton, Benjamin P. Donnelly, Jeffrey P. Gehrels, W. Roland Hay, Carling C. Mitrovica, Jerry X. Morrow, Eric D. Rahmstorf, Stefan Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era |
| title | Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era |
| title_full | Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era |
| title_fullStr | Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era |
| title_full_unstemmed | Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era |
| title_short | Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era |
| title_sort | temperature driven global sea level variability in the common era |
| topic | Sea Level Science::Geology Common Era |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10356/88758 http://hdl.handle.net/10220/50460 |
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