Coupled model biases breed spurious low-frequency variability in the tropical Pacific Ocean
Coupled general circulation model (GCM) biases in the tropical Pacific are substantial, including a westward extended cold sea surface temperature (SST) bias linked to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Investigation of internal climate variability at centennial timescales using multicentury contr...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Jezik: | English |
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2018
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| Online dostop: | https://hdl.handle.net/10356/89563 http://hdl.handle.net/10220/46331 |
| _version_ | 1826125030771130368 |
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| author | Samanta, Dhrubajyoti Karnauskas, Kristopher B. Goodkin, Nathalie F. Coats, Sloan Smerdon, Jason E. Zhang, Lei |
| author2 | Asian School of the Environment |
| author_facet | Asian School of the Environment Samanta, Dhrubajyoti Karnauskas, Kristopher B. Goodkin, Nathalie F. Coats, Sloan Smerdon, Jason E. Zhang, Lei |
| author_sort | Samanta, Dhrubajyoti |
| collection | NTU |
| description | Coupled general circulation model (GCM) biases in the tropical Pacific are substantial, including a westward extended cold sea surface temperature (SST) bias linked to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Investigation of internal climate variability at centennial timescales using multicentury control integrations of 27 GCMs suggests that a Pacific Centennial Oscillation emerges in GCMs with too strong ENSO variability in the equatorial Pacific, including westward extended SST variability. Using a stochastic model of climate variability (Hasselmann type), we diagnose such centennial SST variance in the western equatorial Pacific. The consistency of a simple stochastic model with complex GCMs suggests that a previously defined Pacific Centennial Oscillation may be driven by biases in high‐frequency ENSO forcing in the western equatorial Pacific. A cautious evaluation of long‐term trends in the tropical Pacific from GCMs is necessary because significant trends in historical and future simulations are possible consequences of biases in simulated internal variability alone. |
| first_indexed | 2024-10-01T06:30:04Z |
| id | ntu-10356/89563 |
| institution | Nanyang Technological University |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-10-01T06:30:04Z |
| publishDate | 2018 |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | ntu-10356/895632020-09-26T21:33:30Z Coupled model biases breed spurious low-frequency variability in the tropical Pacific Ocean Samanta, Dhrubajyoti Karnauskas, Kristopher B. Goodkin, Nathalie F. Coats, Sloan Smerdon, Jason E. Zhang, Lei Asian School of the Environment Earth Observatory of Singapore Model bias ENSO DRNTU::Science Coupled general circulation model (GCM) biases in the tropical Pacific are substantial, including a westward extended cold sea surface temperature (SST) bias linked to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Investigation of internal climate variability at centennial timescales using multicentury control integrations of 27 GCMs suggests that a Pacific Centennial Oscillation emerges in GCMs with too strong ENSO variability in the equatorial Pacific, including westward extended SST variability. Using a stochastic model of climate variability (Hasselmann type), we diagnose such centennial SST variance in the western equatorial Pacific. The consistency of a simple stochastic model with complex GCMs suggests that a previously defined Pacific Centennial Oscillation may be driven by biases in high‐frequency ENSO forcing in the western equatorial Pacific. A cautious evaluation of long‐term trends in the tropical Pacific from GCMs is necessary because significant trends in historical and future simulations are possible consequences of biases in simulated internal variability alone. MOE (Min. of Education, S’pore) Published version 2018-10-16T02:48:35Z 2019-12-06T17:28:29Z 2018-10-16T02:48:35Z 2019-12-06T17:28:29Z 2018 Samanta, D., Karnauskas, K. B., Goodkin, N. F., Coats, S., Smerdon, J. E., & Zhang, L. Coupled model biases breed spurious low-frequency variability in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Geophysical Research Letters. doi:10.1029/2018GL079455 0094-8276 https://hdl.handle.net/10356/89563 http://hdl.handle.net/10220/46331 10.1029/2018GL079455 en Geophysical Research Letters © 2018 The Authors. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non-commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made. 10 p. application/pdf application/pdf |
| spellingShingle | Model bias ENSO DRNTU::Science Samanta, Dhrubajyoti Karnauskas, Kristopher B. Goodkin, Nathalie F. Coats, Sloan Smerdon, Jason E. Zhang, Lei Coupled model biases breed spurious low-frequency variability in the tropical Pacific Ocean |
| title | Coupled model biases breed spurious low-frequency variability in the tropical Pacific Ocean |
| title_full | Coupled model biases breed spurious low-frequency variability in the tropical Pacific Ocean |
| title_fullStr | Coupled model biases breed spurious low-frequency variability in the tropical Pacific Ocean |
| title_full_unstemmed | Coupled model biases breed spurious low-frequency variability in the tropical Pacific Ocean |
| title_short | Coupled model biases breed spurious low-frequency variability in the tropical Pacific Ocean |
| title_sort | coupled model biases breed spurious low frequency variability in the tropical pacific ocean |
| topic | Model bias ENSO DRNTU::Science |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10356/89563 http://hdl.handle.net/10220/46331 |
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