Comparisons of risk-based decision rules for the application of water resources planning and management
Water resources planning and management are plagued with various uncertainties in that any chosen management alternative always has the possibility to be inferior to other competing alternatives. To facilitate risk-based decision making, the minimax expected opportunity loss (EOL) rule is applied fo...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Other Authors: | |
| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | English |
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2015
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| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10356/93729 http://hdl.handle.net/10220/38359 |
| _version_ | 1824457142579494912 |
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| author | Su, Hsin-Ting Tung, Yeou-Koung |
| author2 | School of Civil and Environmental Engineering |
| author_facet | School of Civil and Environmental Engineering Su, Hsin-Ting Tung, Yeou-Koung |
| author_sort | Su, Hsin-Ting |
| collection | NTU |
| description | Water resources planning and management are plagued with various uncertainties in that any chosen management alternative always has the possibility to be inferior to other competing alternatives. To facilitate risk-based decision making, the minimax expected opportunity loss (EOL) rule is applied for alternative selection. Two existing risk measures as well as EOL are compared and their implications in risk-based decision making are examined. It is shown that EOL can reflect more accurately the relative merit of two competing alternatives without suffering the pessimism and the counter-intuition of the other two risk measures considered herein. The minimax EOL rule is demonstrated through an application to a river basin management decision for improving the navigation. The results show that the correlation between outcomes of competing alternatives and decision maker’s acceptable risk are important in decision making under uncertainty. |
| first_indexed | 2025-02-19T04:05:18Z |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | ntu-10356/93729 |
| institution | Nanyang Technological University |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2025-02-19T04:05:18Z |
| publishDate | 2015 |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | ntu-10356/937292020-03-07T11:43:29Z Comparisons of risk-based decision rules for the application of water resources planning and management Su, Hsin-Ting Tung, Yeou-Koung School of Civil and Environmental Engineering DRNTU::Engineering::Civil engineering::Water resources Water resources planning and management are plagued with various uncertainties in that any chosen management alternative always has the possibility to be inferior to other competing alternatives. To facilitate risk-based decision making, the minimax expected opportunity loss (EOL) rule is applied for alternative selection. Two existing risk measures as well as EOL are compared and their implications in risk-based decision making are examined. It is shown that EOL can reflect more accurately the relative merit of two competing alternatives without suffering the pessimism and the counter-intuition of the other two risk measures considered herein. The minimax EOL rule is demonstrated through an application to a river basin management decision for improving the navigation. The results show that the correlation between outcomes of competing alternatives and decision maker’s acceptable risk are important in decision making under uncertainty. Accepted version 2015-07-22T09:17:12Z 2019-12-06T18:44:25Z 2015-07-22T09:17:12Z 2019-12-06T18:44:25Z 2014 2014 Journal Article Su, H. T., & Tung, Y. K. (2014). Comparisons of risk-based decision rules for the application of water resources planning and management. Water Resources Management, 28(12), 3921-3935. https://hdl.handle.net/10356/93729 http://hdl.handle.net/10220/38359 10.1007/s11269-014-0718-8 en Water resources management © 2014 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. This is the author created version of a work that has been peer reviewed and accepted for publication by Water Resources Management, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. It incorporates referee’s comments but changes resulting from the publishing process, such as copyediting, structural formatting, may not be reflected in this document. The published version is available at: [http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11269-014-0718-8]. application/pdf |
| spellingShingle | DRNTU::Engineering::Civil engineering::Water resources Su, Hsin-Ting Tung, Yeou-Koung Comparisons of risk-based decision rules for the application of water resources planning and management |
| title | Comparisons of risk-based decision rules for the application of water resources planning and management |
| title_full | Comparisons of risk-based decision rules for the application of water resources planning and management |
| title_fullStr | Comparisons of risk-based decision rules for the application of water resources planning and management |
| title_full_unstemmed | Comparisons of risk-based decision rules for the application of water resources planning and management |
| title_short | Comparisons of risk-based decision rules for the application of water resources planning and management |
| title_sort | comparisons of risk based decision rules for the application of water resources planning and management |
| topic | DRNTU::Engineering::Civil engineering::Water resources |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10356/93729 http://hdl.handle.net/10220/38359 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT suhsinting comparisonsofriskbaseddecisionrulesfortheapplicationofwaterresourcesplanningandmanagement AT tungyeoukoung comparisonsofriskbaseddecisionrulesfortheapplicationofwaterresourcesplanningandmanagement |