| Summary: | This research attempts to create new methodology in order to predict the future
land use which also taking into account of coastal flood phenomenon using Markov-
Cellular Automata. Markov-Cellular Automata is a kind of GIS in developed with
Artificial Intelligent (AI) that able to do several frame logic developments based upon
special case, such as Pekalongan municipal with potential of coastal flood. Hence, future
land use modelling composed by multi-variable of driving factors for each land use
change, suitability maps for each land use and depends on probability of changes during
the period of two satellite imageries. In this current study, each cell will iterate to change
into other states of landuse by following the transition map. Meanwhile, transition maps
have developed in combining between suitability maps and constraint factors.
Constraint factor in this research represent the vulnerability of loss function due
level of floodwater-depth for each of land use in Pekalongan municipal. In further details,
this research showed the dynamic of transition map induced by level of vulnerability of
land use due to floodwater-depth of coastal inundation. Markov probability also used in
this research in order to explore the probability of land use change from 2003 to 2009 in
Pekalongan municipal. The combination of AHP (Analytical Hierarchical Process) and
Fuzzy set memberships are utilized to provide good understanding of suitability maps for
each land use in Pekalogan municipal.
In this research the land use has been predicted to 2030, while prediction of 2012
was used as calibration and validation of model. The validation procedure was
demonstrated using random sampling survey on fieldwork and then it compared to model.
The accuracy showed that prediction of land use in Pekalongan starts from 2009 until
2012 is about 89.92%. Based on the model, in year 2030, several land use appears in east
district of Pekalogan
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