| Summary: | Pyroclastic flow modeling in Merapi volcano which occured on
November, 1st and 3rd, 2010 is done in order to parameterization input in Titan2D.
Titan2D is a software which can be used to model a debris avalanches in the earth
surface.
Inverse model method had been applied in this research. The model was
validated toward run out distance and distribution of pyroclastic deposit in Gendol
river. Model validation was done by geoeye satelite image, SPOT 5 satelite
image, and field checking. The parameters that already validated was used to
predict the next eruption. Prediction was carried out by using several scenarios
which characterize index eruption of Merapi. The result of prediction model in
Titan2D was applied to produce pyroclastic hazard map in Merapi volcano after
2010 eruption and to develop pyroclastic hazard map which already published by
BPPTK.
The result of parameterization and validation showed that Titan2D is able
to model the distribution of pyroclastic flow with bomb � coarse sand materials.
Pyroclastic with surges, very fine sand, and hot blast could not be modelled by
Titan2D. The result of prediction in Titan2D gave information the villages having
high hazard toward pyrclastic flow in the next eruption. Hargo Binangun, Kepuh
Harjo, Umbul Harjo, and Glagah Harjo are the villages which located in high
pyroclastic hazard area. Analisis of pyroclastic hazard map based on model
toward KRB map showed up the KRB map is only appropriate toward VEI 3
(volume 10 million � 100 million m3). KRB map which produced by digitation of
pyroclastic deposit in the previous eruption might change if eruption with VEI 4
occurs and it should be modified following the morphological dynamic of the
summit of Merapi.
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