| Summary: | The demand of electricity is continuing to increase inline with the growth of
population and economic activity. In Indonesia, the demand of electricity in 2008
is 179.48 MTOE. To supply this demand of electricity, the amount of generated
electricity 149.44 TWh in the same year. The most part of this electricity demand
is used to supply the demand in JAMALI system that is 78.11% of the total
demand of electricity in Indonesia. The primary energy used in JAMALI system is
dominated by coal, oil fuel, and natural gas with the percentage of 40.90%,
29.13%, and 20.14% respectively. In the other side, Indonesia has a lot of
potential of renewable energy that is very possible to be optimized to supply the
need of electricity. Some of renewable energy in JAMALI system is geothermal
energy, hydro power, biomass, and solar energy.
In this study, the analysis of scenario of demand and supply of electricity was
conducted with the support of LEAP software. In the developed LEAP model,
scenario was constructed from demand and supply side of JAMALI system. The
reference scenario was used to describe demand and supply of electricity without
any intervention of new energy policy. It can be said that the reference scenario
describe the energy situation in the base year. In the demand side of the model,
scenario consists of the reference and energy conservation scenario. The scenario
of energy conservation is used to simulate the policy of energy conservation in
electricity. The impact of the policy then was analyzed. In the supply side of the
model, scenario consists of the reference, optimized, and the reduction of CO2
emission scenario. In the reference scenario, the calculation of power plant
capacity is done endogenously. Optimized scenario calculates the capacity of the
power plant based on the least-cost combination. The reduction of CO2 emission
scenario consists of nuclear power plant, new and renewable energy, and
externality cost scenario.
Based on optimized scenario, the role of coal fired power plant in electricity
generation is very dominant, that is 76.90% from the total of generated electricity
in 2050. By the reference scenario, the role of coal fired power plant is only
51.73% in the same year. Generated electricity of NGCC power plant by
optimized scenario is lower compare to the reference scenario. The role of
nuclear power plant in the reduction of CO2 emission is very significant. By the
implementation of nuclear power plant, CO2 emission can be reduced with the
growth 3.62% per year. The similar rate of CO2 emission growth can be achieved
by the implementation of new and renewable energy in electricity generation.
|
|---|