| Summary: | This research aims to analysis the fiscal risk due to the increases of world oil price. Empirically, the increases of world oil price have some impacts to government�s revenue and expenditure in APBN. On the revenue side, the impact of increases world oil price can be seen from revenue of oil and gas as well as oil and gas tax. In other hand, the impact of increases of world oil price can be seen from subsidies that the goverment had given, especially subsidy of fuel. The increases of world oil price that happen in current years and statuation of Indonesia which had become net importer of oil can potentially cause fiscal risk that will disrupt the continuity of Fiscal. Therefore, it is important to examine the fiscal risk that the government faced and analysis the response of it to the increases world oil prices in order to reach the continuity of Indonesia fiscal.
This analysis uses the rerata varian for count fiscal risk, furthermore to see a response of fiscal risk uses Vector Autoregressive (VAR). Results of analysis showed the increases of world oil price had caused fiscal risk through contingent liability of fuel subsidy and changed the Indonesia oil production (lifting). These things can be seen from a number results of rerata varian that show the fiscal risk which counted from the difference between contingent liability of fuel subsidy in RAPBN and realisation of it in APBN especially when the statuation of Indonesia had become net importer country.
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