| Summary: | The dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 created five new independent Central Asian states
and fundamentally changed the strategic configuration of the wider Central Asian region,
although the implications of this geo-strategic upheaval could not be predicted with any certainty
at that time. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union there were fears that ethnic strife and
conflict would spread through the complicated ethnic matrix formed by Central Asia. There is a
potential for conflict within the region and the risk of Central Asia turning into a highly unstable
region is quite real. Meanwhile, another regional powers began to seek influence in Central Asia
as Russia loosing its grip upon this region. It may be argued that the active engagement of
external powers in Central Asia is likely to contribute to peace and stability in the region and that
contacts with the wider international community can enhance opportunities for the Central Asian
states to develop their economies, build more democratic societies and resolve conflicts.
However, this rationale for �geopolitical or geo-strategic pluralism� has yet to be confirmed.
Moreover, legitimate concerns can be raised that the manner in which regional powers engage in
Central Asia can re-ignite old conflicts and give rise to new ones. Regional powers carefully
monitor the involvement of other powers in the fragile Central Asian states and assess the
potential impact of new foreign ties on the balance within the region. The existence of a wide
variety of internal sources of instability within Central Asia means that the potential for conflict
is ever-present and the growing influence of foreign states and transnational influences in the
region could deepen divisions within vulnerable societies. Foreign companies and foreign
governments with agendas of their own could act as rivals, with deleterious effects on the
interests of the states in the region. At the same time local groups or interests may be inclined to
exploit the opportunities provided by the presence of external actors to the detriment of other
states or groups in the region.
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