| Summary: | The purpose of this research is to calculate intrinsic value of PT Astra Otoparts� stock
(IDX: AUTO). Calculations of intrinsic value doing with two methods, Discounted
Cash Flow to Equity (DCFE) and Price Earning Ratio (PER). Valuating by DCFE
method do with calculating Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE) of the company for five
years ahead and calculating Terminal Value (TV). The calculation of FCFE doing by
predict the sales, income statement and balance sheet for five years ahead, from 2011
until 2015. Factor of macro economic such as inflation, gross domestic product and
dollar exchange rate against rupiah predict will affect the sales of AUTO so
researcher doing regression process between percentage of changing in sales against
percentage of changing in inflation, gross domestic product and dollar exchange rate
against rupiah. Beside the regression method, the process to predict income statement
and balance sheet based on historic data (internal financial data) for five years before,
from 2006 until 2010 and other assumptions according to company policy and
government regulation. This method using cost of equity (Ke) for discounting FCFE.
Cost of equity calculating by using CAPM formula. Valuating with PER method
counting change of Earning per Share (EPS) against PER of company and compare
PER of company with PER of industry in the same field.
The result of this research show that the price of AUTO�s stock is Rp3.275 was
pricing higher by market compare with calculation of its intrinsic value, Rp3.251, or
called overvalued. The regression between percentage of changing in sales and
percentage of changing in inflation, gross domestic product and dollar exchange rate
against rupiah show that coefficients of regression is positive but not significant so
that the historic financial data using for predict AUTO�s sales for five year ahead.
Cost of equity calculating by CAPM with its components such as Risk Free using SBI
rate 2011 for 12 months, 7.36%. Risk Premium Market is 6% and Auto Beta is 1.37.
Growth rate calculate using the average of ROE and Dividend Payout Ratio
(forecasted) and get Terminal Value Rp18,189,288,000,000 and total present value of
FCFE Rp12,536,042,000,000 with shares outstanding 3,855,786,400. PER method
calculate regression between changing of EPS and changing of PER. Regression
result show positive coefficients of regression but not significant. Therefore, for this
method using comparison between AUTO PER and automotive subsector PER based
on third quarter data in 2011 from IDX, 10.42 compare with 9.59. Conclusion that
AUTO�s stock are valuating overvalued by investor.
|
|---|