Nowcasting is not just contemporaneous forecasting
We consider the reasons for nowcasting, the timing of information and sources thereof, especially contemporaneous data, which introduce different aspects compared to forecasting. We allow for the impact of location shifts inducing nowcast failure and nowcasting during breaks, probably with measureme...
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| Format: | Journal article |
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SAGE Publications
2009
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| _version_ | 1826256546336604160 |
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| author | Castle, J Fawcett, N Hendry, D |
| author_facet | Castle, J Fawcett, N Hendry, D |
| author_sort | Castle, J |
| collection | OXFORD |
| description | We consider the reasons for nowcasting, the timing of information and sources thereof, especially contemporaneous data, which introduce different aspects compared to forecasting. We allow for the impact of location shifts inducing nowcast failure and nowcasting during breaks, probably with measurement errors. We also apply a variant of the nowcasting strategy proposed in Castle and Hendry (2009) to nowcast Euro Area GDP growth. Models of disaggregate monthly indicators are built by automatic methods, forecasting all variables that are released with a publication lag each period, then testing for shifts in available measures including survey data, switching to robust forecasts of missing series when breaks are detected. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-06T18:03:57Z |
| format | Journal article |
| id | oxford-uuid:00c972f5-0621-4209-954a-627dceecf1c5 |
| institution | University of Oxford |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-06T18:03:57Z |
| publishDate | 2009 |
| publisher | SAGE Publications |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | oxford-uuid:00c972f5-0621-4209-954a-627dceecf1c52022-03-26T08:31:20ZNowcasting is not just contemporaneous forecastingJournal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_dcae04bcuuid:00c972f5-0621-4209-954a-627dceecf1c5Symplectic Elements at OxfordSAGE Publications2009Castle, JFawcett, NHendry, DWe consider the reasons for nowcasting, the timing of information and sources thereof, especially contemporaneous data, which introduce different aspects compared to forecasting. We allow for the impact of location shifts inducing nowcast failure and nowcasting during breaks, probably with measurement errors. We also apply a variant of the nowcasting strategy proposed in Castle and Hendry (2009) to nowcast Euro Area GDP growth. Models of disaggregate monthly indicators are built by automatic methods, forecasting all variables that are released with a publication lag each period, then testing for shifts in available measures including survey data, switching to robust forecasts of missing series when breaks are detected. |
| spellingShingle | Castle, J Fawcett, N Hendry, D Nowcasting is not just contemporaneous forecasting |
| title | Nowcasting is not just contemporaneous forecasting |
| title_full | Nowcasting is not just contemporaneous forecasting |
| title_fullStr | Nowcasting is not just contemporaneous forecasting |
| title_full_unstemmed | Nowcasting is not just contemporaneous forecasting |
| title_short | Nowcasting is not just contemporaneous forecasting |
| title_sort | nowcasting is not just contemporaneous forecasting |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT castlej nowcastingisnotjustcontemporaneousforecasting AT fawcettn nowcastingisnotjustcontemporaneousforecasting AT hendryd nowcastingisnotjustcontemporaneousforecasting |