Evolution and emergence of novel human infections
Some zoomotic pathogens cause sporadic infection in humans but rarely propagate further, while others have succeeeded in overcoming the species barrier and becoming established in the human population. Adaptation, driven by selection pressure in human hosts, can play a significant role in allowing p...
| 主要な著者: | , |
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| フォーマット: | Journal article |
| 言語: | English |
| 出版事項: |
Royal Society
2009
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| 主題: |
| _version_ | 1826256709316771840 |
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| author | Arinaminpathy, N McLean, A |
| author_facet | Arinaminpathy, N McLean, A |
| author_sort | Arinaminpathy, N |
| collection | OXFORD |
| description | Some zoomotic pathogens cause sporadic infection in humans but rarely propagate further, while others have succeeeded in overcoming the species barrier and becoming established in the human population. Adaptation, driven by selection pressure in human hosts, can play a significant role in allowing pathogens to cross this species barrier. Here we use a simple mathematical model to study potential epidemiological markers of adaptation. We ask: under what circumstances could ongoing adaptation be signalled by large clusters of human infection? If a pathogen has caused hundreds of cases but with little transmission, does this indicate that the species barrier cannot be crossed? Finally, how can case reports be monitored to detect an imminent emergence event? We distinguish evolutionary scenarios under which adaptation is likely to be signalled by large clusters of infection and under which emergence is likely to occur without any prior warning. Moreover, we show that a lack of transmission never rules out adaptability, regardless of how many zoonoses have occurred. Indeed, after the first 100 zoonotic cases, continuing sporadic zoonotic infections without onward, human-to-human transmission offer little extra information on pathogen adaptability. Finally, we present a simple method for monitoring outbreaks for signs of emergence and discuss public health implications. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-06T18:06:33Z |
| format | Journal article |
| id | oxford-uuid:019db51c-5a4d-43c4-a7a0-f063edf0b93c |
| institution | University of Oxford |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-06T18:06:33Z |
| publishDate | 2009 |
| publisher | Royal Society |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | oxford-uuid:019db51c-5a4d-43c4-a7a0-f063edf0b93c2022-03-26T08:36:01ZEvolution and emergence of novel human infectionsJournal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_dcae04bcuuid:019db51c-5a4d-43c4-a7a0-f063edf0b93cZoological sciencesEnglishOxford University Research Archive - ValetRoyal Society2009Arinaminpathy, NMcLean, ASome zoomotic pathogens cause sporadic infection in humans but rarely propagate further, while others have succeeeded in overcoming the species barrier and becoming established in the human population. Adaptation, driven by selection pressure in human hosts, can play a significant role in allowing pathogens to cross this species barrier. Here we use a simple mathematical model to study potential epidemiological markers of adaptation. We ask: under what circumstances could ongoing adaptation be signalled by large clusters of human infection? If a pathogen has caused hundreds of cases but with little transmission, does this indicate that the species barrier cannot be crossed? Finally, how can case reports be monitored to detect an imminent emergence event? We distinguish evolutionary scenarios under which adaptation is likely to be signalled by large clusters of infection and under which emergence is likely to occur without any prior warning. Moreover, we show that a lack of transmission never rules out adaptability, regardless of how many zoonoses have occurred. Indeed, after the first 100 zoonotic cases, continuing sporadic zoonotic infections without onward, human-to-human transmission offer little extra information on pathogen adaptability. Finally, we present a simple method for monitoring outbreaks for signs of emergence and discuss public health implications. |
| spellingShingle | Zoological sciences Arinaminpathy, N McLean, A Evolution and emergence of novel human infections |
| title | Evolution and emergence of novel human infections |
| title_full | Evolution and emergence of novel human infections |
| title_fullStr | Evolution and emergence of novel human infections |
| title_full_unstemmed | Evolution and emergence of novel human infections |
| title_short | Evolution and emergence of novel human infections |
| title_sort | evolution and emergence of novel human infections |
| topic | Zoological sciences |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT arinaminpathyn evolutionandemergenceofnovelhumaninfections AT mcleana evolutionandemergenceofnovelhumaninfections |