| Summary: | For most cities sustainable travel is an important transport policy aspiration, implying amongst other objectives much less dependence on oil and much reduced carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Some jurisdictions have adopted stringent CO2 reduction targets. But all, including the more progressive cities, are experiencing major difficulties in moving towards greater sustainability in travel behaviour. The private car (fuelled by petrol and diesel) remains the mainstream mode of travel under current trends and prospective trajectories. The different baselines, projections, and opportunities are considered for two very different contexts, London and Jinan (China), drawing on two previous modelling studies carried out by us. The likely possibilities for reducing transport CO2 emissions are examined, developing normative and qualitative scenarios, combined with a more quantitative understanding of the likely make up of the future images. Each scenario is compared relative to the current business as usual projections for transport CO2 emissions. The conclusion comments on the potential for achieving change, on the need for the more radical “discontinuity” measures which may move towards sustainable mobility, and also on the continuing difficulties in implementation.
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