Seasonal maize forecasting for South Africa and Zimbabwe derived from an agroclimatological model

Seasonal maize water-stress forecasts were derived for area averages of the primary maize-growing regions of South Africa and Zimbabwe. An agroclimatological model was used to create a historical record of maize water stress as a function of evapotranspiration for 1961-94. Water stress, the primary...

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Auteurs principaux: Martin, R, Washington, R, Downing, T
Format: Journal article
Langue:English
Publié: Americal Meteorological Society 2000
Sujets:
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author Martin, R
Washington, R
Downing, T
author_facet Martin, R
Washington, R
Downing, T
author_sort Martin, R
collection OXFORD
description Seasonal maize water-stress forecasts were derived for area averages of the primary maize-growing regions of South Africa and Zimbabwe. An agroclimatological model was used to create a historical record of maize water stress as a function of evapotranspiration for 1961-94. Water stress, the primary determinant of yield in water-limited environments such as southern Africa, was correlated with two well-known indices of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation: the Southern Oscillation index (SOI) and the Niño-3 region of the equatorial Pacific. Forecasts for South Africa using only the SOI at a 4-month lead yielded a hindcast correlation of 0.67 over 17 seasons (1961-78) and a forecast correlation of 0.69 over 16 seasons (1978-94). Forecasts for Zimbabwe were less remarkable.
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spelling oxford-uuid:16431f86-2f45-4e67-9564-22ca96af32e72022-03-26T10:30:15ZSeasonal maize forecasting for South Africa and Zimbabwe derived from an agroclimatological modelJournal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_dcae04bcuuid:16431f86-2f45-4e67-9564-22ca96af32e7EnvironmentEnvironmental changeEnglishOxford University Research Archive - ValetAmerical Meteorological Society2000Martin, RWashington, RDowning, TSeasonal maize water-stress forecasts were derived for area averages of the primary maize-growing regions of South Africa and Zimbabwe. An agroclimatological model was used to create a historical record of maize water stress as a function of evapotranspiration for 1961-94. Water stress, the primary determinant of yield in water-limited environments such as southern Africa, was correlated with two well-known indices of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation: the Southern Oscillation index (SOI) and the Niño-3 region of the equatorial Pacific. Forecasts for South Africa using only the SOI at a 4-month lead yielded a hindcast correlation of 0.67 over 17 seasons (1961-78) and a forecast correlation of 0.69 over 16 seasons (1978-94). Forecasts for Zimbabwe were less remarkable.
spellingShingle Environment
Environmental change
Martin, R
Washington, R
Downing, T
Seasonal maize forecasting for South Africa and Zimbabwe derived from an agroclimatological model
title Seasonal maize forecasting for South Africa and Zimbabwe derived from an agroclimatological model
title_full Seasonal maize forecasting for South Africa and Zimbabwe derived from an agroclimatological model
title_fullStr Seasonal maize forecasting for South Africa and Zimbabwe derived from an agroclimatological model
title_full_unstemmed Seasonal maize forecasting for South Africa and Zimbabwe derived from an agroclimatological model
title_short Seasonal maize forecasting for South Africa and Zimbabwe derived from an agroclimatological model
title_sort seasonal maize forecasting for south africa and zimbabwe derived from an agroclimatological model
topic Environment
Environmental change
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AT washingtonr seasonalmaizeforecastingforsouthafricaandzimbabwederivedfromanagroclimatologicalmodel
AT downingt seasonalmaizeforecastingforsouthafricaandzimbabwederivedfromanagroclimatologicalmodel