Simulating regime structures in weather and climate prediction models
It is shown that a global atmospheric model with horizontal resolution typical of that used in operational numerical weather prediction is able to simulate non-gaussian probability distributions associated with the climatology of quasi-persistent Euro-Atlantic weather regimes. The spatial patterns o...
| Glavni autori: | , , |
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| Format: | Journal article |
| Jezik: | English |
| Izdano: |
2012
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| _version_ | 1826261349519327232 |
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| author | Dawson, A Palmer, T Corti, S |
| author_facet | Dawson, A Palmer, T Corti, S |
| author_sort | Dawson, A |
| collection | OXFORD |
| description | It is shown that a global atmospheric model with horizontal resolution typical of that used in operational numerical weather prediction is able to simulate non-gaussian probability distributions associated with the climatology of quasi-persistent Euro-Atlantic weather regimes. The spatial patterns of these simulated regimes are remarkably accurate. By contrast, the same model, integrated at a resolution more typical of current climate models, shows no statistically significant evidence of such non-gaussian regime structures, and the spatial structure of the corresponding clusters are not accurate. Hence, whilst studies typically show incremental improvements in first and second moments of climatological distributions of the large-scale flow with increasing model resolution, here a real step change in the higher-order moments is found. It is argued that these results have profound implications for the ability of high resolution limited-area models, forced by low resolution global models, to simulate reliably, regional climate change signals. © 2012. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-06T19:20:00Z |
| format | Journal article |
| id | oxford-uuid:19c07ed9-f66a-4280-98c2-2a054b554ab0 |
| institution | University of Oxford |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-06T19:20:00Z |
| publishDate | 2012 |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | oxford-uuid:19c07ed9-f66a-4280-98c2-2a054b554ab02022-03-26T10:50:45ZSimulating regime structures in weather and climate prediction modelsJournal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_dcae04bcuuid:19c07ed9-f66a-4280-98c2-2a054b554ab0EnglishSymplectic Elements at Oxford2012Dawson, APalmer, TCorti, SIt is shown that a global atmospheric model with horizontal resolution typical of that used in operational numerical weather prediction is able to simulate non-gaussian probability distributions associated with the climatology of quasi-persistent Euro-Atlantic weather regimes. The spatial patterns of these simulated regimes are remarkably accurate. By contrast, the same model, integrated at a resolution more typical of current climate models, shows no statistically significant evidence of such non-gaussian regime structures, and the spatial structure of the corresponding clusters are not accurate. Hence, whilst studies typically show incremental improvements in first and second moments of climatological distributions of the large-scale flow with increasing model resolution, here a real step change in the higher-order moments is found. It is argued that these results have profound implications for the ability of high resolution limited-area models, forced by low resolution global models, to simulate reliably, regional climate change signals. © 2012. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. |
| spellingShingle | Dawson, A Palmer, T Corti, S Simulating regime structures in weather and climate prediction models |
| title | Simulating regime structures in weather and climate prediction models |
| title_full | Simulating regime structures in weather and climate prediction models |
| title_fullStr | Simulating regime structures in weather and climate prediction models |
| title_full_unstemmed | Simulating regime structures in weather and climate prediction models |
| title_short | Simulating regime structures in weather and climate prediction models |
| title_sort | simulating regime structures in weather and climate prediction models |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT dawsona simulatingregimestructuresinweatherandclimatepredictionmodels AT palmert simulatingregimestructuresinweatherandclimatepredictionmodels AT cortis simulatingregimestructuresinweatherandclimatepredictionmodels |