| Summary: | <p><strong>AIM:</strong> Prognosis following early psychosis is highly variable. Long-term prognostic information from research studies is available in only a few areas. We sought to understand how well routine discharge information allows prediction of long-term readmission prognosis.</p>
<p><strong>METHODS:</strong> We reviewed the records of 239 people leaving Early Intervention services, after an average of 2.5 years, and counted the number of relapses. The distribution was modelled and extrapolated to a predicted 10 year outcome. Model predictions were compared with published data.</p>
<p><strong>RESULTS:</strong> Numbers of relapses varied substantially, with 59% having no relapses before discharge, and 5% having 4 or more. Model predictions for 10-year outcome were close to the observed data.</p>
<p><strong>CONCLUSIONS:</strong> A simple model can describe the distribution of numbers of relapses among people discharged from EI services, and predict long-term outcomes matching those observed in formal research. This low-cost approach could allow EI services to develop locale-specific prognostic information.</p>
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