Forecasting Pitfalls
The paper highlights the pitfalls of forecasting by considering a trip by car—but with inaccurate maps in a world where roads are unexpectedly shut or opened. Behind the scenes lies a new theoretical framework for economic forecasting which acknowledges that economic models are simplified representa...
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| Formatua: | Journal article |
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Universidad Carlos III de Madrid
2003
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| _version_ | 1826261438479466496 |
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| author | Hendry, D |
| author_facet | Hendry, D |
| author_sort | Hendry, D |
| collection | OXFORD |
| description | The paper highlights the pitfalls of forecasting by considering a trip by car—but with inaccurate maps in a world where roads are unexpectedly shut or opened. Behind the scenes lies a new theoretical framework for economic forecasting which acknowledges that economic models are simplified representations of an economy prone to sudden shifts. That approach explains the prevalence of forecast failure; accounts for the results of forecasting competitions; and explains the surprisingly good performance of ‘consensus’ forecasts. The paper offers a non-technical discussion of that theory, and draws some lighthearted conclusions on how to avoid some of the pitfalls awaiting unwary forecasters. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-06T19:21:27Z |
| format | Journal article |
| id | oxford-uuid:1a3b9f08-e252-4b98-9135-3d64a2bb2ba3 |
| institution | University of Oxford |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-06T19:21:27Z |
| publishDate | 2003 |
| publisher | Universidad Carlos III de Madrid |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | oxford-uuid:1a3b9f08-e252-4b98-9135-3d64a2bb2ba32022-03-26T10:53:38ZForecasting PitfallsJournal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_dcae04bcuuid:1a3b9f08-e252-4b98-9135-3d64a2bb2ba3Department of Economics - ePrintsUniversidad Carlos III de Madrid2003Hendry, DThe paper highlights the pitfalls of forecasting by considering a trip by car—but with inaccurate maps in a world where roads are unexpectedly shut or opened. Behind the scenes lies a new theoretical framework for economic forecasting which acknowledges that economic models are simplified representations of an economy prone to sudden shifts. That approach explains the prevalence of forecast failure; accounts for the results of forecasting competitions; and explains the surprisingly good performance of ‘consensus’ forecasts. The paper offers a non-technical discussion of that theory, and draws some lighthearted conclusions on how to avoid some of the pitfalls awaiting unwary forecasters. |
| spellingShingle | Hendry, D Forecasting Pitfalls |
| title | Forecasting Pitfalls |
| title_full | Forecasting Pitfalls |
| title_fullStr | Forecasting Pitfalls |
| title_full_unstemmed | Forecasting Pitfalls |
| title_short | Forecasting Pitfalls |
| title_sort | forecasting pitfalls |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT hendryd forecastingpitfalls |