Epidemiological and ecological determinants of Zika virus transmission in an urban setting
The Zika virus has emerged as a global public health concern. Its rapid geographic expansion is attributed to the success of Aedes mosquito vectors, but local epidemiological drivers are still poorly understood. Feira de Santana played a pivotal role in the Chikungunya epidemic in Brazil and was one...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Journal article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
eLife Sciences Publications
2017
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| _version_ | 1826261508093378560 |
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| author | Lourenço, J Maia de Lima, M Rodrigues Faria, N Walker, A Kraemer, MU Villabona-Arenas, CJ Lambert, B Marques de Cerqueira, E Pybus, OG Alcantara, LC Recker, M |
| author_facet | Lourenço, J Maia de Lima, M Rodrigues Faria, N Walker, A Kraemer, MU Villabona-Arenas, CJ Lambert, B Marques de Cerqueira, E Pybus, OG Alcantara, LC Recker, M |
| author_sort | Lourenço, J |
| collection | OXFORD |
| description | The Zika virus has emerged as a global public health concern. Its rapid geographic expansion is attributed to the success of Aedes mosquito vectors, but local epidemiological drivers are still poorly understood. Feira de Santana played a pivotal role in the Chikungunya epidemic in Brazil and was one of the first urban centres to report Zika infections. Using a climate-driven transmission model and notified Zika case data, we show that a low observation rate and high vectorial capacity translated into a significant attack rate during the 2015 outbreak, with a subsequent decline in 2016 and fade-out in 2017 due to herd-immunity. We find a potential Zika-related, low risk for microcephaly per pregnancy, but with significant public health impact given high attack rates. The balance between the loss of herd-immunity and viral re-importation will dictate future transmission potential of Zika in this urban setting. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-06T19:22:32Z |
| format | Journal article |
| id | oxford-uuid:1a95228c-3d70-43d0-ba65-01daed392f4c |
| institution | University of Oxford |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-06T19:22:32Z |
| publishDate | 2017 |
| publisher | eLife Sciences Publications |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | oxford-uuid:1a95228c-3d70-43d0-ba65-01daed392f4c2022-03-26T10:55:44ZEpidemiological and ecological determinants of Zika virus transmission in an urban settingJournal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_dcae04bcuuid:1a95228c-3d70-43d0-ba65-01daed392f4cEnglishSymplectic ElementseLife Sciences Publications2017Lourenço, JMaia de Lima, MRodrigues Faria, NWalker, AKraemer, MUVillabona-Arenas, CJLambert, BMarques de Cerqueira, EPybus, OGAlcantara, LCRecker, MThe Zika virus has emerged as a global public health concern. Its rapid geographic expansion is attributed to the success of Aedes mosquito vectors, but local epidemiological drivers are still poorly understood. Feira de Santana played a pivotal role in the Chikungunya epidemic in Brazil and was one of the first urban centres to report Zika infections. Using a climate-driven transmission model and notified Zika case data, we show that a low observation rate and high vectorial capacity translated into a significant attack rate during the 2015 outbreak, with a subsequent decline in 2016 and fade-out in 2017 due to herd-immunity. We find a potential Zika-related, low risk for microcephaly per pregnancy, but with significant public health impact given high attack rates. The balance between the loss of herd-immunity and viral re-importation will dictate future transmission potential of Zika in this urban setting. |
| spellingShingle | Lourenço, J Maia de Lima, M Rodrigues Faria, N Walker, A Kraemer, MU Villabona-Arenas, CJ Lambert, B Marques de Cerqueira, E Pybus, OG Alcantara, LC Recker, M Epidemiological and ecological determinants of Zika virus transmission in an urban setting |
| title | Epidemiological and ecological determinants of Zika virus transmission in an urban setting |
| title_full | Epidemiological and ecological determinants of Zika virus transmission in an urban setting |
| title_fullStr | Epidemiological and ecological determinants of Zika virus transmission in an urban setting |
| title_full_unstemmed | Epidemiological and ecological determinants of Zika virus transmission in an urban setting |
| title_short | Epidemiological and ecological determinants of Zika virus transmission in an urban setting |
| title_sort | epidemiological and ecological determinants of zika virus transmission in an urban setting |
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