Worldwide trends in blood pressure from 1975 to 2015: a pooled analysis of 1479 population-based measurement studies with 19·1 million participants
<strong>Background:</strong> Elevated blood pressure is an important risk factor for cardiovascular diseases and chronic kidney disease. We estimated worldwide trends in mean systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP), and the prevalence of, and number of people wit...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Journal article |
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Elsevier
2016
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| _version_ | 1797056384857014272 |
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| author | NCD Risk Factor Collaboration Zhou, B Bentham, J Di Cesare, M Chen, Z Key, T Smith, M Woodward, M |
| author_facet | NCD Risk Factor Collaboration Zhou, B Bentham, J Di Cesare, M Chen, Z Key, T Smith, M Woodward, M |
| author_sort | NCD Risk Factor Collaboration |
| collection | OXFORD |
| description | <strong>Background:</strong> Elevated blood pressure is an important risk factor for cardiovascular diseases and chronic kidney disease. We estimated worldwide trends in mean systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP), and the prevalence of, and number of people with, raised blood pressure defined as SBP ≥140 mmHg or DBP ≥90 mmHg. <strong>Methods:</strong> We pooled 1,479 population-based studies that had measured blood pressure on 19.1 million adults aged 18 years and older. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1975 to 2015 in mean SBP and DBP, and prevalence of raised blood pressure for 200 countries. We calculated the contributions of changes in prevalence versus population growth and ageing to the increase in the number of adults with raised blood pressure. <strong>Findings:</strong> Global age-standardised mean SBP in 2015 was 127.0 mmHg (95% credible interval 125.7-128.3) in men and 122.3 mmHg (121.0-123.6) in women; age-standardised mean DBP was 78.7 mmHg (77.9-79.5) for men and 76.7 mmHg (75.9-77.6) for women. Global age-standardised prevalence of raised blood pressure was 24.1% (21.4-27.1) in men and 20.1% (17.8-22.5) in women in 2015. Mean SBP and DBP declined substantially from 1975 to 2015 in high-income western and Asia-Pacific countries, moving them from some of the highest blood pressure levels in 1975 to the lowest in 2015. Mean blood pressure may have also declined among women in central and eastern Europe, Latin America and Caribbean, and, more recently, central Asia, Middle East and north Africa. In contrast, mean blood pressure may have risen in east and southeast Asia, south Asia, Oceania, and sub-Saharan Africa. In 2015, central and eastern Europe, sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia had the highest worldwide blood pressure levels. Prevalence of raised blood pressure declined in high-income and some middle-income countries; it remained unchanged elsewhere. The number of adults with raised blood pressure increased from 594 million in 1975 to 1.13 billion in 2015, with the increase happening largely in low- and middle-income countries. The global increase in the number of adults with raised blood pressure is a net effect of increase due to population growth and ageing, and decrease due to declining age-specific prevalence. <strong>Interpretation:</strong> Over the past four decades, the highest levels of blood pressure worldwide have shifted from high-income countries to low-income countries in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa due to opposite trends, while blood pressure has been persistently high in central and eastern Europe. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-06T19:22:40Z |
| format | Journal article |
| id | oxford-uuid:1aa11556-24e2-4fda-9e4a-76cd5f64aa70 |
| institution | University of Oxford |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-06T19:22:40Z |
| publishDate | 2016 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | oxford-uuid:1aa11556-24e2-4fda-9e4a-76cd5f64aa702022-03-26T10:55:58ZWorldwide trends in blood pressure from 1975 to 2015: a pooled analysis of 1479 population-based measurement studies with 19·1 million participantsJournal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_dcae04bcuuid:1aa11556-24e2-4fda-9e4a-76cd5f64aa70Symplectic Elements at OxfordElsevier2016NCD Risk Factor CollaborationZhou, BBentham, JDi Cesare, MChen, ZKey, TSmith, MWoodward, M<strong>Background:</strong> Elevated blood pressure is an important risk factor for cardiovascular diseases and chronic kidney disease. We estimated worldwide trends in mean systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP), and the prevalence of, and number of people with, raised blood pressure defined as SBP ≥140 mmHg or DBP ≥90 mmHg. <strong>Methods:</strong> We pooled 1,479 population-based studies that had measured blood pressure on 19.1 million adults aged 18 years and older. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1975 to 2015 in mean SBP and DBP, and prevalence of raised blood pressure for 200 countries. We calculated the contributions of changes in prevalence versus population growth and ageing to the increase in the number of adults with raised blood pressure. <strong>Findings:</strong> Global age-standardised mean SBP in 2015 was 127.0 mmHg (95% credible interval 125.7-128.3) in men and 122.3 mmHg (121.0-123.6) in women; age-standardised mean DBP was 78.7 mmHg (77.9-79.5) for men and 76.7 mmHg (75.9-77.6) for women. Global age-standardised prevalence of raised blood pressure was 24.1% (21.4-27.1) in men and 20.1% (17.8-22.5) in women in 2015. Mean SBP and DBP declined substantially from 1975 to 2015 in high-income western and Asia-Pacific countries, moving them from some of the highest blood pressure levels in 1975 to the lowest in 2015. Mean blood pressure may have also declined among women in central and eastern Europe, Latin America and Caribbean, and, more recently, central Asia, Middle East and north Africa. In contrast, mean blood pressure may have risen in east and southeast Asia, south Asia, Oceania, and sub-Saharan Africa. In 2015, central and eastern Europe, sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia had the highest worldwide blood pressure levels. Prevalence of raised blood pressure declined in high-income and some middle-income countries; it remained unchanged elsewhere. The number of adults with raised blood pressure increased from 594 million in 1975 to 1.13 billion in 2015, with the increase happening largely in low- and middle-income countries. The global increase in the number of adults with raised blood pressure is a net effect of increase due to population growth and ageing, and decrease due to declining age-specific prevalence. <strong>Interpretation:</strong> Over the past four decades, the highest levels of blood pressure worldwide have shifted from high-income countries to low-income countries in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa due to opposite trends, while blood pressure has been persistently high in central and eastern Europe. |
| spellingShingle | NCD Risk Factor Collaboration Zhou, B Bentham, J Di Cesare, M Chen, Z Key, T Smith, M Woodward, M Worldwide trends in blood pressure from 1975 to 2015: a pooled analysis of 1479 population-based measurement studies with 19·1 million participants |
| title | Worldwide trends in blood pressure from 1975 to 2015: a pooled analysis of 1479 population-based measurement studies with 19·1 million participants |
| title_full | Worldwide trends in blood pressure from 1975 to 2015: a pooled analysis of 1479 population-based measurement studies with 19·1 million participants |
| title_fullStr | Worldwide trends in blood pressure from 1975 to 2015: a pooled analysis of 1479 population-based measurement studies with 19·1 million participants |
| title_full_unstemmed | Worldwide trends in blood pressure from 1975 to 2015: a pooled analysis of 1479 population-based measurement studies with 19·1 million participants |
| title_short | Worldwide trends in blood pressure from 1975 to 2015: a pooled analysis of 1479 population-based measurement studies with 19·1 million participants |
| title_sort | worldwide trends in blood pressure from 1975 to 2015 a pooled analysis of 1479 population based measurement studies with 19·1 million participants |
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