How predictable is technological progress?
Recently it has become clear that many technologies follow a generalized version of Moore's law, i.e. costs tend to drop exponentially, at different rates that depend on the technology. Here we formulate Moore's law as a correlated geometric random walk with drift, and apply it to historic...
Main Authors: | Farmer, J, Lafond, F |
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Format: | Journal article |
Published: |
Elsevier
2016
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