Uncertainty in continental-scale temperature predictions
Anthropogenic climate change has been detected on continental-scale regions on all inhabited continents of the World. From knowledge of the relative contributions of greenhouse gases and other forcings to observed temperature change it is possible to infer the likely rates of future warming, consist...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Journal article |
| Language: | English |
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2006
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| _version_ | 1797057097910714368 |
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| author | Stott, P Kettleborough, J Allen, M |
| author_facet | Stott, P Kettleborough, J Allen, M |
| author_sort | Stott, P |
| collection | OXFORD |
| description | Anthropogenic climate change has been detected on continental-scale regions on all inhabited continents of the World. From knowledge of the relative contributions of greenhouse gases and other forcings to observed temperature change it is possible to infer the likely rates of future warming, consistent with past observed temperature changes. Probabilistic forecasts of future warming rates in six continental-scale regions have been calculated by assuming that there is a linear relationship between past and future fractional error in temperature change on these spatial scales. All regions are expected to warm over the next century with the largest uncertainty in future warming rates being in North America and Europe. More tightly constrained predictions are obtained if it is assumed that fractional errors in global mean temperature change scale the regional projections. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-06T19:31:26Z |
| format | Journal article |
| id | oxford-uuid:1d968351-fd6c-4198-9859-15ebb524d5cb |
| institution | University of Oxford |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-06T19:31:26Z |
| publishDate | 2006 |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | oxford-uuid:1d968351-fd6c-4198-9859-15ebb524d5cb2022-03-26T11:11:43ZUncertainty in continental-scale temperature predictionsJournal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_dcae04bcuuid:1d968351-fd6c-4198-9859-15ebb524d5cbEnglishSymplectic Elements at Oxford2006Stott, PKettleborough, JAllen, MAnthropogenic climate change has been detected on continental-scale regions on all inhabited continents of the World. From knowledge of the relative contributions of greenhouse gases and other forcings to observed temperature change it is possible to infer the likely rates of future warming, consistent with past observed temperature changes. Probabilistic forecasts of future warming rates in six continental-scale regions have been calculated by assuming that there is a linear relationship between past and future fractional error in temperature change on these spatial scales. All regions are expected to warm over the next century with the largest uncertainty in future warming rates being in North America and Europe. More tightly constrained predictions are obtained if it is assumed that fractional errors in global mean temperature change scale the regional projections. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union. |
| spellingShingle | Stott, P Kettleborough, J Allen, M Uncertainty in continental-scale temperature predictions |
| title | Uncertainty in continental-scale temperature predictions |
| title_full | Uncertainty in continental-scale temperature predictions |
| title_fullStr | Uncertainty in continental-scale temperature predictions |
| title_full_unstemmed | Uncertainty in continental-scale temperature predictions |
| title_short | Uncertainty in continental-scale temperature predictions |
| title_sort | uncertainty in continental scale temperature predictions |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT stottp uncertaintyincontinentalscaletemperaturepredictions AT kettleboroughj uncertaintyincontinentalscaletemperaturepredictions AT allenm uncertaintyincontinentalscaletemperaturepredictions |