| Summary: | <p>This thesis analyses drivers of decision-making in the irrigation water sector in the context of fragile political states and aquifer depletion. The thesis offers insights for theory, evidence, and policy by advancing collective action theory as well Social-Ecological Systems (SES) Thinking and Modelling in the postAuthoritarian and path-dependent context of Tunisia. The three papers of the thesis unpack complex Social-Ecological dynamics in an interdisciplinary mixedmethods approach. The papers investigate decision-making in the water sector across nested governance scales from national-level state-building to selfgoverning collective action groups and individual behavioural dynamics. By integrating qualitative social historical, and quantitative physical modelling techniques in a longitudinal approach, the thesis traces co-evolving socialecological feedbacks between and within institutions, water users, and commonpool groundwater resources. The thesis provides nuance to the capacity of institutions to self-govern in the face of chronic water scarcity and inadequate regulatory mechanisms of monitoring and enforcement.</p>
<p>Acknowledging system complexity, this thesis seeks to engage methods that can uncover the emergence of causal relationships and their outcomes within the SES. Drawing on key analytical lenses of historical institutionalism and social psychology, the three papers employ methods of process-tracing, Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA), and Agent-Based Modelling (ABM). These methods are purposely chosen to address context-sensitive, non-linear recursive interactions within the Social-Ecological System (SES). The thesis explores the role of the state in water resources management and user perceptions in a fragile political context marked by frequent social unrest. This thesis’ contribution comes from understanding how fragility affects the evolution of collective action by drawing attention to specific variables (state-building, hope) that have largely been ignored, and by specifically working across levels of action/decision-making often treated separately. The thesis traces the evolution of institutions governing water policy-making and resulting practices of water allocation and use - linked to an authoritarian past of repression and control. It identifies empirical causal pathways of local decision-making that mediate contemporary relationships between institutional trust, social trust, hope, and outcomes of collective action (cooperation and conflict) in water user groups. Ultimately, the thesis animates these social-ecological dynamics in a “digital-twin” evolutionary game driven by institutional rules, water availability, and social preferences.</p>
<p>Results indicate limits to top-down policy implementation and bottom-up collective action in the path-dependent SES. Given the systemic erosion of institutional trust, farmers in modern-day Tunisia see social trust-based systems and local coping mechanisms such as illicit groundwater withdrawals as an alternative to formal rules and the coercive power of the state. Results demonstrate how water sector reforms in past authoritarian regimes served as a practical and symbolic vehicle to institutionalise domination, co-optation, and repression of water users. Where aquifers have been degraded and institutional trust eroded, conflict can arise between water users. At the same time, simulations of water user behaviour, hydrogeological dynamics, and agricultural strategies shed light on the erosion of social norms and reveal possible delay mechanisms of system collapse.</p>
<p>Core academic contributions include the application of theories of state legitimisation, repression, and co-optation to the water-agriculture nexus, evidence of collective action dynamics in settings of low hope under varying social dimensions of trust, and the adaptation of evolutionary games and ABMs to complex contexts of fragility.</p>
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