Global implications of 1.5 °C and 2 °C warmer worlds on extreme river flows
Targets agreed to in Paris in 2015 aim to limit global warming to "well below 2 °C and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels". Despite the far-reaching consequences of this multi-lateral climate change mitigation strategy, the implication...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Journal article |
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IOP Publishing
2018
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| _version_ | 1797058477323976704 |
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| author | Paltan Lopez, H Allen, M Haustein, K Fuldauer, L Dadson, S |
| author_facet | Paltan Lopez, H Allen, M Haustein, K Fuldauer, L Dadson, S |
| author_sort | Paltan Lopez, H |
| collection | OXFORD |
| description | Targets agreed to in Paris in 2015 aim to limit global warming to "well below 2 °C and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels". Despite the far-reaching consequences of this multi-lateral climate change mitigation strategy, the implications for global river flows remain unclear. Here we estimate the impacts of 1.5ºC vs 2.0ºC mitigation scenarios on peak flows by using daily river flow data from a multi-model ensemble which follows the HAPPI Protocol (that is specifically designed to simulate these temperature targets). We find agreement between models with regard to changing risk of river flow extremes. Moreover, we find that the response at 2.0°C is not a uniform extension of the response at 1.5º, suggesting a non-linear global response of peak flows to the two mitigation levels. Yet committing to the 1.5ºC warming target, rather than 2ºC, is projected to lead to an increase in the frequency of occurrence of extreme flows in several large catchments. In the most affected areas, predominantly in South Asia, while region-specific features such as aerosol loads may determine precipitation patterns, we estimate that under our 1.5ºC scenario the historical 1-in-100-year flow occurs with a frequency of 1-in-25 years. At 2.0ºC similar increases are observed in several global regions. These shifts are also accompanied by changes in the duration of rainy seasons which influence the occurrence of high flows. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-06T19:50:49Z |
| format | Journal article |
| id | oxford-uuid:23ecb9ac-881f-4939-ab94-81dc50989bcb |
| institution | University of Oxford |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-06T19:50:49Z |
| publishDate | 2018 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | oxford-uuid:23ecb9ac-881f-4939-ab94-81dc50989bcb2022-03-26T11:47:07ZGlobal implications of 1.5 °C and 2 °C warmer worlds on extreme river flowsJournal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_dcae04bcuuid:23ecb9ac-881f-4939-ab94-81dc50989bcbSymplectic Elements at OxfordIOP Publishing2018Paltan Lopez, HAllen, MHaustein, KFuldauer, LDadson, STargets agreed to in Paris in 2015 aim to limit global warming to "well below 2 °C and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels". Despite the far-reaching consequences of this multi-lateral climate change mitigation strategy, the implications for global river flows remain unclear. Here we estimate the impacts of 1.5ºC vs 2.0ºC mitigation scenarios on peak flows by using daily river flow data from a multi-model ensemble which follows the HAPPI Protocol (that is specifically designed to simulate these temperature targets). We find agreement between models with regard to changing risk of river flow extremes. Moreover, we find that the response at 2.0°C is not a uniform extension of the response at 1.5º, suggesting a non-linear global response of peak flows to the two mitigation levels. Yet committing to the 1.5ºC warming target, rather than 2ºC, is projected to lead to an increase in the frequency of occurrence of extreme flows in several large catchments. In the most affected areas, predominantly in South Asia, while region-specific features such as aerosol loads may determine precipitation patterns, we estimate that under our 1.5ºC scenario the historical 1-in-100-year flow occurs with a frequency of 1-in-25 years. At 2.0ºC similar increases are observed in several global regions. These shifts are also accompanied by changes in the duration of rainy seasons which influence the occurrence of high flows. |
| spellingShingle | Paltan Lopez, H Allen, M Haustein, K Fuldauer, L Dadson, S Global implications of 1.5 °C and 2 °C warmer worlds on extreme river flows |
| title | Global implications of 1.5 °C and 2 °C warmer worlds on extreme river flows |
| title_full | Global implications of 1.5 °C and 2 °C warmer worlds on extreme river flows |
| title_fullStr | Global implications of 1.5 °C and 2 °C warmer worlds on extreme river flows |
| title_full_unstemmed | Global implications of 1.5 °C and 2 °C warmer worlds on extreme river flows |
| title_short | Global implications of 1.5 °C and 2 °C warmer worlds on extreme river flows |
| title_sort | global implications of 1 5 °c and 2 °c warmer worlds on extreme river flows |
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