Establishment and lineage dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in the UK

The UK’s COVID-19 epidemic during early 2020 was one of world’s largest and unusually well represented by virus genomic sampling. Here we reveal the fine-scale genetic lineage structure of this epidemic through analysis of 50,887 SARS-CoV-2 genomes, including 26,181 from the UK sampled throughout th...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Du Plessis, L, McCrone, J, Zarebski, A, Hill, V, Ruis, C, Gutierrez, B, Raghwani, J, Asworth, J, Colquhoun, R, Connor, T, Faria, N, Jackson, B, Loman, N, O'Toole, Á, Nicholls, S, Parag, K, Scher, E, Vasylyeva, T, Volz, E, Watts, A, Bogoch, I, Khan, K, Aanensen, D, Kraemer, M, Rambaut, A, Pybus, O
Format: Journal article
Language:English
Published: American Association for the Advancement of Science 2021
Description
Summary:The UK’s COVID-19 epidemic during early 2020 was one of world’s largest and unusually well represented by virus genomic sampling. Here we reveal the fine-scale genetic lineage structure of this epidemic through analysis of 50,887 SARS-CoV-2 genomes, including 26,181 from the UK sampled throughout the country’s first wave of infection. Using large-scale phylogenetic analyses, combined with epidemiological and travel data, we quantify the size, spatio-temporal origins and persistence of genetically-distinct UK transmission lineages. Rapid fluctuations in virus importation rates resulted in >1000 lineages; those introduced prior to national lockdown tended to be larger and more dispersed. Lineage importation and regional lineage diversity declined after lockdown, while lineage elimination was size-dependent. We discuss the implications of our genetic perspective on transmission dynamics for COVID-19 epidemiology and control.