Establishment and lineage dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in the UK

The UK’s COVID-19 epidemic during early 2020 was one of world’s largest and unusually well represented by virus genomic sampling. Here we reveal the fine-scale genetic lineage structure of this epidemic through analysis of 50,887 SARS-CoV-2 genomes, including 26,181 from the UK sampled throughout th...

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Main Authors: Du Plessis, L, McCrone, J, Zarebski, A, Hill, V, Ruis, C, Gutierrez, B, Raghwani, J, Asworth, J, Colquhoun, R, Connor, T, Faria, N, Jackson, B, Loman, N, O'Toole, Á, Nicholls, S, Parag, K, Scher, E, Vasylyeva, T, Volz, E, Watts, A, Bogoch, I, Khan, K, Aanensen, D, Kraemer, M, Rambaut, A, Pybus, O
Format: Journal article
Language:English
Published: American Association for the Advancement of Science 2021
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author Du Plessis, L
McCrone, J
Zarebski, A
Hill, V
Ruis, C
Gutierrez, B
Raghwani, J
Asworth, J
Colquhoun, R
Connor, T
Faria, N
Jackson, B
Loman, N
O'Toole, Á
Nicholls, S
Parag, K
Scher, E
Vasylyeva, T
Volz, E
Watts, A
Bogoch, I
Khan, K
Aanensen, D
Kraemer, M
Rambaut, A
Pybus, O
author_facet Du Plessis, L
McCrone, J
Zarebski, A
Hill, V
Ruis, C
Gutierrez, B
Raghwani, J
Asworth, J
Colquhoun, R
Connor, T
Faria, N
Jackson, B
Loman, N
O'Toole, Á
Nicholls, S
Parag, K
Scher, E
Vasylyeva, T
Volz, E
Watts, A
Bogoch, I
Khan, K
Aanensen, D
Kraemer, M
Rambaut, A
Pybus, O
author_sort Du Plessis, L
collection OXFORD
description The UK’s COVID-19 epidemic during early 2020 was one of world’s largest and unusually well represented by virus genomic sampling. Here we reveal the fine-scale genetic lineage structure of this epidemic through analysis of 50,887 SARS-CoV-2 genomes, including 26,181 from the UK sampled throughout the country’s first wave of infection. Using large-scale phylogenetic analyses, combined with epidemiological and travel data, we quantify the size, spatio-temporal origins and persistence of genetically-distinct UK transmission lineages. Rapid fluctuations in virus importation rates resulted in >1000 lineages; those introduced prior to national lockdown tended to be larger and more dispersed. Lineage importation and regional lineage diversity declined after lockdown, while lineage elimination was size-dependent. We discuss the implications of our genetic perspective on transmission dynamics for COVID-19 epidemiology and control.
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spelling oxford-uuid:2533b939-1e0c-4bff-8fc6-b52ead1e5c872022-03-26T11:54:35ZEstablishment and lineage dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in the UKJournal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_dcae04bcuuid:2533b939-1e0c-4bff-8fc6-b52ead1e5c87EnglishSymplectic ElementsAmerican Association for the Advancement of Science2021Du Plessis, LMcCrone, JZarebski, AHill, VRuis, CGutierrez, BRaghwani, JAsworth, JColquhoun, RConnor, TFaria, NJackson, BLoman, NO'Toole, ÁNicholls, SParag, KScher, EVasylyeva, TVolz, EWatts, ABogoch, IKhan, KAanensen, DKraemer, MRambaut, APybus, OThe UK’s COVID-19 epidemic during early 2020 was one of world’s largest and unusually well represented by virus genomic sampling. Here we reveal the fine-scale genetic lineage structure of this epidemic through analysis of 50,887 SARS-CoV-2 genomes, including 26,181 from the UK sampled throughout the country’s first wave of infection. Using large-scale phylogenetic analyses, combined with epidemiological and travel data, we quantify the size, spatio-temporal origins and persistence of genetically-distinct UK transmission lineages. Rapid fluctuations in virus importation rates resulted in >1000 lineages; those introduced prior to national lockdown tended to be larger and more dispersed. Lineage importation and regional lineage diversity declined after lockdown, while lineage elimination was size-dependent. We discuss the implications of our genetic perspective on transmission dynamics for COVID-19 epidemiology and control.
spellingShingle Du Plessis, L
McCrone, J
Zarebski, A
Hill, V
Ruis, C
Gutierrez, B
Raghwani, J
Asworth, J
Colquhoun, R
Connor, T
Faria, N
Jackson, B
Loman, N
O'Toole, Á
Nicholls, S
Parag, K
Scher, E
Vasylyeva, T
Volz, E
Watts, A
Bogoch, I
Khan, K
Aanensen, D
Kraemer, M
Rambaut, A
Pybus, O
Establishment and lineage dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in the UK
title Establishment and lineage dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in the UK
title_full Establishment and lineage dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in the UK
title_fullStr Establishment and lineage dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in the UK
title_full_unstemmed Establishment and lineage dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in the UK
title_short Establishment and lineage dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in the UK
title_sort establishment and lineage dynamics of the sars cov 2 epidemic in the uk
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