Evaluating process-based integrated assessment models of climate change mitigation
Process-based integrated assessment models (IAMs) project long-term transformation pathways in energy and land-use systems under what-if assumptions. IAM evaluation is necessary to improve the models’ usefulness as scientific tools applicable in the complex and contested domain of climate...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
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| 格式: | Journal article |
| 語言: | English |
| 出版: |
Springer
2021
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| _version_ | 1826307923235569664 |
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| author | Wilson, C Guivarch, C Kriegler, E van Ruijven, B van Vuuren, DP Krey, V Schwanitz, VJ Thompson, EL |
| author_facet | Wilson, C Guivarch, C Kriegler, E van Ruijven, B van Vuuren, DP Krey, V Schwanitz, VJ Thompson, EL |
| author_sort | Wilson, C |
| collection | OXFORD |
| description | Process-based integrated assessment models (IAMs) project long-term transformation pathways in energy and land-use systems under what-if assumptions. IAM evaluation is necessary to improve the models’ usefulness as scientific tools applicable in the complex and contested domain of climate change mitigation. We contribute the first comprehensive synthesis of process-based IAM evaluation research, drawing on a wide range of examples across six different evaluation methods including historical simulations, stylised facts, and model diagnostics. For each evaluation method, we identify progress and milestones to date, and draw out lessons learnt as well as challenges remaining. We find that each evaluation method has distinctive strengths, as well as constraints on its application. We use these insights to propose a systematic evaluation framework combining multiple methods to establish the appropriateness, interpretability, credibility, and relevance of process-based IAMs as useful scientific tools for informing climate policy. We also set out a programme of evaluation research to be mainstreamed both within and outside the IAM community. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-07T07:11:53Z |
| format | Journal article |
| id | oxford-uuid:25e5aa32-91fa-482a-a529-a9f7e82b24d1 |
| institution | University of Oxford |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-07T07:11:53Z |
| publishDate | 2021 |
| publisher | Springer |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | oxford-uuid:25e5aa32-91fa-482a-a529-a9f7e82b24d12022-06-30T13:28:29ZEvaluating process-based integrated assessment models of climate change mitigationJournal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_dcae04bcuuid:25e5aa32-91fa-482a-a529-a9f7e82b24d1EnglishSymplectic ElementsSpringer2021Wilson, CGuivarch, CKriegler, Evan Ruijven, Bvan Vuuren, DPKrey, VSchwanitz, VJThompson, ELProcess-based integrated assessment models (IAMs) project long-term transformation pathways in energy and land-use systems under what-if assumptions. IAM evaluation is necessary to improve the models’ usefulness as scientific tools applicable in the complex and contested domain of climate change mitigation. We contribute the first comprehensive synthesis of process-based IAM evaluation research, drawing on a wide range of examples across six different evaluation methods including historical simulations, stylised facts, and model diagnostics. For each evaluation method, we identify progress and milestones to date, and draw out lessons learnt as well as challenges remaining. We find that each evaluation method has distinctive strengths, as well as constraints on its application. We use these insights to propose a systematic evaluation framework combining multiple methods to establish the appropriateness, interpretability, credibility, and relevance of process-based IAMs as useful scientific tools for informing climate policy. We also set out a programme of evaluation research to be mainstreamed both within and outside the IAM community. |
| spellingShingle | Wilson, C Guivarch, C Kriegler, E van Ruijven, B van Vuuren, DP Krey, V Schwanitz, VJ Thompson, EL Evaluating process-based integrated assessment models of climate change mitigation |
| title | Evaluating process-based integrated assessment models of climate change mitigation |
| title_full | Evaluating process-based integrated assessment models of climate change mitigation |
| title_fullStr | Evaluating process-based integrated assessment models of climate change mitigation |
| title_full_unstemmed | Evaluating process-based integrated assessment models of climate change mitigation |
| title_short | Evaluating process-based integrated assessment models of climate change mitigation |
| title_sort | evaluating process based integrated assessment models of climate change mitigation |
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