exTREEmaTIME: a method for incorporating uncertainty into divergence time estimates

We present a method of divergence time estimation (exTREEmaTIME) that aims to effectively account for uncertainty in divergence time estimates. The method requires a minimal set of assumptions, and, based on these assumptions, estimates the oldest possible divergence times and youngest possible dive...

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Auteurs principaux: Carruthers, T, Scotland, RW
Format: Journal article
Langue:English
Publié: Company of Biologists 2022
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author Carruthers, T
Scotland, RW
author_facet Carruthers, T
Scotland, RW
author_sort Carruthers, T
collection OXFORD
description We present a method of divergence time estimation (exTREEmaTIME) that aims to effectively account for uncertainty in divergence time estimates. The method requires a minimal set of assumptions, and, based on these assumptions, estimates the oldest possible divergence times and youngest possible divergence times that are consistent with the assumptions. We use a series of simulations and empirical analyses to illustrate that exTREEmaTIME is effective at representing uncertainty. We then describe how exTREEmaTIME can act as a basis to determine the implications of the more stringent assumptions that are incorporated into other methods of divergence time estimation that produce more precise estimates. This is critically important given that many of the assumptions that are incorporated into these methods are highly complex, difficult to justify biologically, and as such can lead to estimates that are highly inaccurate.
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spelling oxford-uuid:280ac0b3-a524-442c-8f24-8112fa2fd2b82022-04-27T11:48:16ZexTREEmaTIME: a method for incorporating uncertainty into divergence time estimatesJournal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_dcae04bcuuid:280ac0b3-a524-442c-8f24-8112fa2fd2b8EnglishSymplectic ElementsCompany of Biologists2022Carruthers, TScotland, RWWe present a method of divergence time estimation (exTREEmaTIME) that aims to effectively account for uncertainty in divergence time estimates. The method requires a minimal set of assumptions, and, based on these assumptions, estimates the oldest possible divergence times and youngest possible divergence times that are consistent with the assumptions. We use a series of simulations and empirical analyses to illustrate that exTREEmaTIME is effective at representing uncertainty. We then describe how exTREEmaTIME can act as a basis to determine the implications of the more stringent assumptions that are incorporated into other methods of divergence time estimation that produce more precise estimates. This is critically important given that many of the assumptions that are incorporated into these methods are highly complex, difficult to justify biologically, and as such can lead to estimates that are highly inaccurate.
spellingShingle Carruthers, T
Scotland, RW
exTREEmaTIME: a method for incorporating uncertainty into divergence time estimates
title exTREEmaTIME: a method for incorporating uncertainty into divergence time estimates
title_full exTREEmaTIME: a method for incorporating uncertainty into divergence time estimates
title_fullStr exTREEmaTIME: a method for incorporating uncertainty into divergence time estimates
title_full_unstemmed exTREEmaTIME: a method for incorporating uncertainty into divergence time estimates
title_short exTREEmaTIME: a method for incorporating uncertainty into divergence time estimates
title_sort extreematime a method for incorporating uncertainty into divergence time estimates
work_keys_str_mv AT carrutherst extreematimeamethodforincorporatinguncertaintyintodivergencetimeestimates
AT scotlandrw extreematimeamethodforincorporatinguncertaintyintodivergencetimeestimates