A health impact assessment of the UK soft drinks industry levy: a comparative risk assessment modelling study
Background<br/> In March, 2016, the UK government proposed a tiered levy on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs; high, moderate, and no tax for drinks with >8g, 5g to 8g, and <5g sugar per 100ml). We estimate the effect of possible industry responses to the levy on obesity, diabetes,...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Journal article |
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Lancet
2016
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| _version_ | 1797060293961973760 |
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| author | Briggs, A Mytton, O Kehlbacher, A Tiffin, R Elhussein, A Rayner, M Jebb, S Blakely, T Scarborough, P |
| author_facet | Briggs, A Mytton, O Kehlbacher, A Tiffin, R Elhussein, A Rayner, M Jebb, S Blakely, T Scarborough, P |
| author_sort | Briggs, A |
| collection | OXFORD |
| description | Background<br/> In March, 2016, the UK government proposed a tiered levy on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs; high, moderate, and no tax for drinks with >8g, 5g to 8g, and <5g sugar per 100ml). We estimate the effect of possible industry responses to the levy on obesity, diabetes, and dental caries. <br/><br/> Methods<br/> We modelled three possible industry responses: (1) reformulation to reduce sugar concentration, (2) increasing product price, and (3) changing the market share of high-, mid-, and low-sugar drinks. For each response, we defined a better and worse case health scenario. We developed a comparative risk assessment model to estimate the UK health impact of each scenario. <br/><br/> Findings<br/> The best modelled scenario for health is SSB reformulation, resulting in 144,000 (95% uncertainty interval: 5,100 to 306,700) fewer adults and children with obesity in the UK, 19,000 (6,900 to 32,700) fewer incident cases of diabetes per year, and 269,000 (82,200 to 470,900) fewer decayed, missing, or filled teeth annually. Increasing the price of SSBs and changes to market share to increase the proportion of low-sugar drinks sold would also result in population health benefits, but to a lesser extent. The greatest benefit for obesity and oral health would be among individuals under 18 years, with people over 65 years experiencing the largest absolute decreases in diabetes incidence. <br/><br/> Interpretation<br/> The health impact of the soft drink levy is dependent on its implementation by industry. There is uncertainty as to how industry will react and in the estimation of health outcomes. Health gains could be maximised by significant product reformulation with additional benefits possible if the levy is passed onto purchasers through raising the price of high- and mid-sugar drinks, and through activities to increase the market share of low-sugar products. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-06T20:15:06Z |
| format | Journal article |
| id | oxford-uuid:2be1c605-4a93-4d12-af48-7f6ba63864bd |
| institution | University of Oxford |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-06T20:15:06Z |
| publishDate | 2016 |
| publisher | Lancet |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | oxford-uuid:2be1c605-4a93-4d12-af48-7f6ba63864bd2022-03-26T12:33:42ZA health impact assessment of the UK soft drinks industry levy: a comparative risk assessment modelling studyJournal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_dcae04bcuuid:2be1c605-4a93-4d12-af48-7f6ba63864bdSymplectic Elements at OxfordLancet2016Briggs, AMytton, OKehlbacher, ATiffin, RElhussein, ARayner, MJebb, SBlakely, TScarborough, PBackground<br/> In March, 2016, the UK government proposed a tiered levy on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs; high, moderate, and no tax for drinks with >8g, 5g to 8g, and <5g sugar per 100ml). We estimate the effect of possible industry responses to the levy on obesity, diabetes, and dental caries. <br/><br/> Methods<br/> We modelled three possible industry responses: (1) reformulation to reduce sugar concentration, (2) increasing product price, and (3) changing the market share of high-, mid-, and low-sugar drinks. For each response, we defined a better and worse case health scenario. We developed a comparative risk assessment model to estimate the UK health impact of each scenario. <br/><br/> Findings<br/> The best modelled scenario for health is SSB reformulation, resulting in 144,000 (95% uncertainty interval: 5,100 to 306,700) fewer adults and children with obesity in the UK, 19,000 (6,900 to 32,700) fewer incident cases of diabetes per year, and 269,000 (82,200 to 470,900) fewer decayed, missing, or filled teeth annually. Increasing the price of SSBs and changes to market share to increase the proportion of low-sugar drinks sold would also result in population health benefits, but to a lesser extent. The greatest benefit for obesity and oral health would be among individuals under 18 years, with people over 65 years experiencing the largest absolute decreases in diabetes incidence. <br/><br/> Interpretation<br/> The health impact of the soft drink levy is dependent on its implementation by industry. There is uncertainty as to how industry will react and in the estimation of health outcomes. Health gains could be maximised by significant product reformulation with additional benefits possible if the levy is passed onto purchasers through raising the price of high- and mid-sugar drinks, and through activities to increase the market share of low-sugar products. |
| spellingShingle | Briggs, A Mytton, O Kehlbacher, A Tiffin, R Elhussein, A Rayner, M Jebb, S Blakely, T Scarborough, P A health impact assessment of the UK soft drinks industry levy: a comparative risk assessment modelling study |
| title | A health impact assessment of the UK soft drinks industry levy: a comparative risk assessment modelling study |
| title_full | A health impact assessment of the UK soft drinks industry levy: a comparative risk assessment modelling study |
| title_fullStr | A health impact assessment of the UK soft drinks industry levy: a comparative risk assessment modelling study |
| title_full_unstemmed | A health impact assessment of the UK soft drinks industry levy: a comparative risk assessment modelling study |
| title_short | A health impact assessment of the UK soft drinks industry levy: a comparative risk assessment modelling study |
| title_sort | health impact assessment of the uk soft drinks industry levy a comparative risk assessment modelling study |
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