Singular vectors, predictability and ensemble forecasting for weather and climate

The local instabilities of a nonlinear dynamical system can be characterized by the leading singular vectors of its linearized operator. The leading singular vectors are perturbations with the greatest linear growth and are therefore key in assessing the system's predictability. In this paper,...

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Hoofdauteurs: Palmer, T, Zanna, L
Formaat: Journal article
Taal:English
Gepubliceerd in: 2013
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author Palmer, T
Zanna, L
author_facet Palmer, T
Zanna, L
author_sort Palmer, T
collection OXFORD
description The local instabilities of a nonlinear dynamical system can be characterized by the leading singular vectors of its linearized operator. The leading singular vectors are perturbations with the greatest linear growth and are therefore key in assessing the system's predictability. In this paper, the analysis of singular vectors for the predictability of weather and climate and ensemble forecasting is discussed. An overview of the role of singular vectors in informing about the error growth rate in numerical models of the atmosphere is given. This is followed by their use in the initialization of ensemble weather forecasts. Singular vectors for the ocean and coupled ocean-atmosphere system in order to understand the predictability of climate phenomena such as ENSO and meridional overturning circulation are reviewed and their potential use to initialize seasonal and decadal forecasts is considered. As stochastic parameterizations are being implemented, some speculations are made about the future of singular vectors for the predictability of weather and climate for theoretical applications and at the operational level. This article is part of a special issue of Journal of Physics A: Mathematical and Theoretical devoted to 'Lyapunov analysis: from dynamical systems theory to applications'. © 2013 IOP Publishing Ltd.
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spelling oxford-uuid:30ef5018-e056-4c0f-a3a6-02ce013cda622022-03-26T13:04:42ZSingular vectors, predictability and ensemble forecasting for weather and climateJournal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_dcae04bcuuid:30ef5018-e056-4c0f-a3a6-02ce013cda62EnglishSymplectic Elements at Oxford2013Palmer, TZanna, LThe local instabilities of a nonlinear dynamical system can be characterized by the leading singular vectors of its linearized operator. The leading singular vectors are perturbations with the greatest linear growth and are therefore key in assessing the system's predictability. In this paper, the analysis of singular vectors for the predictability of weather and climate and ensemble forecasting is discussed. An overview of the role of singular vectors in informing about the error growth rate in numerical models of the atmosphere is given. This is followed by their use in the initialization of ensemble weather forecasts. Singular vectors for the ocean and coupled ocean-atmosphere system in order to understand the predictability of climate phenomena such as ENSO and meridional overturning circulation are reviewed and their potential use to initialize seasonal and decadal forecasts is considered. As stochastic parameterizations are being implemented, some speculations are made about the future of singular vectors for the predictability of weather and climate for theoretical applications and at the operational level. This article is part of a special issue of Journal of Physics A: Mathematical and Theoretical devoted to 'Lyapunov analysis: from dynamical systems theory to applications'. © 2013 IOP Publishing Ltd.
spellingShingle Palmer, T
Zanna, L
Singular vectors, predictability and ensemble forecasting for weather and climate
title Singular vectors, predictability and ensemble forecasting for weather and climate
title_full Singular vectors, predictability and ensemble forecasting for weather and climate
title_fullStr Singular vectors, predictability and ensemble forecasting for weather and climate
title_full_unstemmed Singular vectors, predictability and ensemble forecasting for weather and climate
title_short Singular vectors, predictability and ensemble forecasting for weather and climate
title_sort singular vectors predictability and ensemble forecasting for weather and climate
work_keys_str_mv AT palmert singularvectorspredictabilityandensembleforecastingforweatherandclimate
AT zannal singularvectorspredictabilityandensembleforecastingforweatherandclimate